Thread by @nicolaborri

My #COVID19 #Italy update March 28 [thread]

Today's numbers confirm growth rate of the pandemic in slowing down: 5974 new cases and 889 deaths (+9.7%). The number of active cases increases by 3651 units (5.5%). All these numbers are low compared to previous days.

1/ Growth in number of tests is flat (9%) and also positive-to-test ratio similar to previous days (16.9%), but below the ratio of last week

2/ Number of people in ICU is still increasing (3.3%), but the growth rate has clearly flattened (it was around 10% in the previous week)

3/ At the regional level, both in terms of number of deaths and number of positive the growth rates are flattening in all regions. To me this is one of the main evidence that the #StayAtHome measures are working.

4/ Today I also added figure with 3-day averages for growth rates in total positive, deaths, patients in ICU and hospital. Puglia, Sicilia and Abruzzo show highest rates, but these probably related to fact that they are "behind" regions in North a few days in virus spread

5/ Today I also learnt how create maps in @MATLAB and prepared one for current positives at province level (todays vs. day national breakdown). Did not have time to normalize by population. However, figure clearly shows virus spread very much concentraded around North

6/ Unfortunately, at province level only available data are for current positives. I prepared map figure at regional level for patients in ICU to highlight areas more under stress.

7/ Finally, my recap figure: current cases around 70K. This is still a very large number. However, on a better note, the number of recovered is increasing substantially. In mean time, as always, #StayAtHome #StayStrong