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May 18, 2020, 6 tweets

#China’s economic recovery is about to break the ice. As external shocks loom large, it’s more urgent than ever for China to boost its demands with all means to resume and stabilize its economic cycle.

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FSDA2NxawhgH…

According to statistics for April, despite pickup in #demand side performance, it’s still 1.7-2.7% lower than the resumption of the #supply side, so the demand gap is evidently widening.

Besides, the further decline in #price parameter shows that insufficient demand is becoming more of a problem and the biggest obstacle to resuming economic activities.

Although most big companies are back on track, most of #SMEs have not fully resumed yet; Although a lot of people are back at work, the actual production remains sluggish. The latter indicates that insufficient demand is a key factor stemming China’s economic rehabilitation.

The pickup in #export and foreign investment of China in March and April does not necessarily mean improvements in its external economic environment; it only means there is a time lag between the global spread of #COVID19 and consequent economic downturn.

The shock of the deteriorating external environment on the Chinese economy is yet to fully unfold. In the second to third quarter, China will face huge pressure. It must stabilize the fundamentals in its own economic cycle in advance to prepare.

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