Thread by @Bacharelhalabi

As Lebanese protestors gear up to take the streets again today to protest the dire situation (on all levels), an ever-going debate was re-opened around #Hezbollah’s weapons. Some groups demand that weapons are incorporated within the military as a key step towards a solution.

A second group thinks that this is not a pressing issue to deal with atm, given poverty & unemployment rates are soaring and quick solutions/reforms must be enacted and the country should be set on a path of reform which later on addresses #Hezbollah’s weapons.

A third group, mostly leftist, believe that weapons need to stay in order to ensure a deterrence effect with #Israel’s IAF, especially that tension is building up on the souther border.

However, back to today’s protests, #Hezbollah’s propaganda massively capitalized on the anti-weapon rhetoric and succeeded in dividing the ranks of the different groups that were participating together in the popular protest movement that succeeded the Oct17 moment.

Interestingly, the video (shared above ☝🏽) is being dispersed on social media (mainly WhatsApp, most effective comms tool in 🇱🇧), displaying #Hezbollah’s advanced missiles while mocking any slogan that opposes said weapons.

Personally, this is the first time I see such advanced weapons with the hezb, something we’ve heard about and read about before knowing that these specific missiles are #Israel’s major concern nowadays as they’re supposed to be the precision guided missiles.

Question is: why would the party to go to new lengths in order to sow divisions within #LebanonProtests? I think the reason is mostly socio-economic. The dire situation already affecting the masses. Any movement in the streets will only invite people to go down and protest.

🇱🇧 is more like a power-keg & #Hezbollah being in control, can not afford mass protests similar to the ones witnessed in previous months. That would be fatal, especially if the party’s community starts voicing its pains & concerns - something we are starting to see glimpses of.

What next? Following the easing of lockdown measures, people have nothing left but to protest, however, they’ll be faced with more divisive questions (which they should have answers to) & a harsher police/military crackdown given the ruling political parties have no margin left.