Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي Profile picture
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي
@Bacharelhalabi
#MENA energy markets, #Opec🛢️, #COP 🟢 & geopolitics for @ArgusMedia #OOTT | Proud graduate of @uniofgalway, @AUB_Lebanon. Views my own. Like = bookmark.
Mar 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Iraq's fiscal break-even oil price will be above $90/bl in 2024. Here's why per the @IMFNews who concluded last weekend its 2024 Article IV consultation with #Iraq authorities:
-Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion... #oott

1/4 -but medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly
-significant fiscal adjustment required, through controlling public wage bill, to ensure fiscal sustainability & reduction of oil dependence
-Int'l reserves increased to $112bn.

2/4
Sep 10, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Fun fact about #Lebanon's newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs:

A battle over the Lebanese embassy in DC took place in 1989, when Abdallah BouHabib was the ambassador. The Taif Agreement had gone into effect and Elias Hraoui was elected President in December of that year. Hraoui, immediately fired Michel Aoun from all his self-proclaimed posts, removed #Lebanon’s veteran ambassador to Washington, Bouhabib himself, and handed control of the embassy to the No. 2 diplomat at the time, Sleiman Rassi.
Sep 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Many fallacies are often perpetuated in media [esp. Arab] about alliances & geopolitics in the MENA region, mainly for propaganda purposes. For instance, since penning the normalization deal with #Israel, state-sponsored media in the #UAE insists that #Iran & #Turkey inch closer. However, here’s a microcosm of how intricate the relation of the two is:

🇹🇷 & 🇮🇷 are at the opposing ends in: 🇮🇶, 🇸🇾 & now Azerbaijan/#Armenia; they overlap in #Libya & on Palestine. One could argue that if Ankara was to invest more in #Lebanon, it’ll be at odds with Tehran.
Sep 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
When in doubt, take a boat trip around the #Bosphorus, #Istanbul, you’ll come across some gems—just like I did today!

First, the F244; a Barbaros-class frigate—the most modern frigates in the Turkish Navy; sunbathing in the canal. Second, the DUGI OTOK creation oil tanker, carrying Russian crude escorted by a Turkish coast guard boat to the Port of #Istanbul.
Sep 26, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Mustafa Adib is not the hero some people are portraying him to be. But Adib, banking on French support & the suffocating situation on the ground, had a stronger hand in negotiating his government formation process - unlike his predecessors. The PM-designate though that: •parties will cave-in following the Aug 4 explosion & Int’l pressure, resulting in them facilitating the formation of a gov’t that can enact certain reforms and tap into some $$s.

However, reality hit hard. #Lebanon, as usual, is just another piece of the regional chessboard.
Sep 22, 2020 • 16 tweets • 9 min read
Lebanese local sources reporting a massive explosion in the southern village Ain-Qana, in the Nabatieh Governorate. No official reports on what blew up in Ain-Qana yet. However, local sources are saying it might've been an explosion in a gas station.

Sep 14, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Today, the Lebanese Forces, a far right Christian militia-turned party, decided to commemorate in a typical militia-styled march the assassination by the fascist Syrian Social Nationalist Party of its founder Bachir Gemayel, ex-president-elect, in 1982. Image Meanwhile, the SSNP had already commemorated its Wimpy Operation of 1982 in a similar fashion donning the same black uniform.

The followers of both parties often butt heads on Sept 14 of every year, in what i’d like to dub as the “derby of Lebanon.” Image
Sep 10, 2020 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Another day another major fire reported at the Port of #Beirut, the site of August 4’s massive explosion that shook the city and killed over 150 people.
Monitoring WhatsApp groups instantly shows you growing panic among residents around that area.the Given this is the second fire since the explosion, this begs the question: what is being burned there? Why is it being burnt and not disposed in a more eco-friendly way? Or are the people in charge aiming to completely destroy certain things in an attempt to hide evidence?
Sep 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While sanctions were being announced by the @USTreasury yesterday on non-#Hezbollah politicians in #Lebanon, senior FPM official (Hezbollah-ally) & longtime parliamentarian says that he "strictly wants @LebarmyOfficial to control all Lebanese territory" - a jab at Hezbollah. Disagreements between the FPM (President Aoun & his son in law @Gebran_Bassil's camp) were always present. Only recently, larger fissures are appearing, beginning with the Salaata power plant scandal and now this.

Their alliance, albeit tight, has always been transactional.
Sep 3, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
طالما السلطة اللاشرعية المجرمة بحق اللبنانيين والمتسببة بتفجير بيروت تمعن أكثر فأكثر بالارتباطات الخارجية وبإنجاز التسويات التي تعيد تدوير رموزها؛ فلشابات وشباب لبنان كل الحق بأن يطوروا استراتيجيات وتكتيكات لايصال صوتهم/هن ونظرتهم/هن لكل الاطراف الداخلية والخارجية. الترويج للبنان الذي نريد ونحلم ونناضل لأجله، لبنان النقيض للمحسوبيات والطائفية والحرب الأهلية هو هدف أساسي نسعى اليه. بعد اليوم، من غير المسموح أن يترك الفضاء العام والعلاقات الدولية والإقليمية حكرا على قوى السلطة المجرمة التي اعتاشت لعقود على التبعية والوكالات الخارجية
Aug 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Excellent reporting by @LizSly, @LovedayM & @suzanHaidamous revealing new details on what happened August 4th in #Beirut.

washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e… The piece reveals that the State's security agency's main concern was the risk of "theft" of the Ammonium Nitrate which could be used to manufacture explosives.

Also, those agencies continue to investigate whether a fire was deliberately set to mask evidence of the theft.
Aug 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The leaked 2-page “concept paper” which #France's President will be carrying with him on his visit to #Beirut  end of August, is a testimony of how misinformed or delusional the int'l community is about #Lebanon 's power-sharing formula & the ruling elite

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-leb… What the int'l community wrongly assumes is that the warlords in power could be brought for a compromise by tempting them with the idea of a "bailout" in order to ensure their survivorhood. However, what keeps those warlords in power is the exact opposite.
Aug 25, 2020 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
#Breaking:

#Israel|i army continues to fire flares over the Lebanese-Israeli border, in the vicinity of al-Manara settlement.
The following page is reporting live from Mays al-Jabal, facing al-Manara.

facebook.com/44222521622340… #Update:

#Israel|i army just confirmed a security-related incident near Menara settlement along the border with #Lebanon. Several roads have been closed over concerns of a possible infiltration.
Aug 25, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
A very important scoop by the @washingtonpost:

-Salim Ayyash, convicted by the @STLebanon for the killing of former PM Rafic Hariri, is part of a #Hezbollah hit-squad.
-Ayyash carried out 4 other assassinations under orders from the party's leadership.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… -Assassinations team, known as Unit 121, is controlled by #Hezbollah’s top leadership; had already been active for years under different identities.
-Hit squad remains active up until today. Info provided by current & former security officials from the US and 3 EU & ME countries.
Aug 24, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ With #Lebanon entering its post-apocalyptic phase, it's becoming alarmingly obvious how the world's attention, scattered over a million issues, is veering away from #Beirut. Someone like President Aoun and his pathetic team, who rode the explosion as a conduit for... 2/ ...breaking what they perceive as an "international embargo" (which btw they caused due to their policies), have no clue how to move next. The 15 seconds of fame Aoun got over the dead bodies & the rubble in Beirut is over. Even French President Macron seems to be...
Aug 24, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Owner of Em Nazih cafe, a darling destination for most expats living in #Beirut or tourists, was filmed while getting arrested by @LebISF. Apparently, the police were investigating the cafe's staff (presumably or possibly Syrian refugees/immigrants). The absurdity of the state in #Lebanon and its apparatus is just nauseating and mindboggling. Instead of investigating the Port of Beirut and bringing perpetrators to justice, this is what they're busy doing. And those assholes are mostly funded by EU taxpayers money.
Aug 21, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#Breaking:
@derspiegel's reporting alongside the journalism network OCCRP has determined that the owner of the Rhosus ship has connections to Hezbollah’s bank.

spiegel.de/international/… The reporting found that it was not Russian national Grechushkin who owned the Rhosus, but rather the Cypriot businessman Charalambos Manoli, who maintained a relationship with the bank used by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Aug 9, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
The time remains for mourning our city and people until further notice, but with the world's attention focused on #Beirut at the moment, bringing people aboard the intricate details of Lebanese politics needs to be shared so that people know what is happening.

#Thread Yesterday, PM @Hassan_B_Diab said he will request an early parliamentary election in a "wishful" bid to defuse a catastrophic crisis following a devastating explosion at the Port of #Beirut.
Aug 9, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Lebanese doctor that works at Hotel-Dieu de France confirms that buckshot traces fired from shotguns from close range have infiltrated the skin of protestors and led to severe injuries that required surgery.
#Lebanon In these photos, captured yesterday, images of @LebarmyOfficial & people in civilian clothes shooting straight at the protestors. Those are members of the infamous Parliament’s security apparatus, owing its allegiance to the Parliament’s speaker & are mostly members of his party. ImageImageImageImage
Aug 8, 2020 • 29 tweets • 19 min read
A protestor from downtown #Beirut saying that live ammo is being fired against them from the security forces “protecting” the parliament.

For context, protestors are attempting to break into the Nejme Square where the parliament lies. Emerging photos of injuries resulting from live ammo & rubber bullets shot at the upper part of protestors bodies in #Beirut. ImageImage
Aug 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Contrary to public perception, Diab's government from its patrons' pt. of view is becoming more hegemonic now that Hitti is out. For @Gebran_Bassil, Hitti as an FM was a threat of "setting a standard" & being autonomous. With lack of solutions in sight, Bassil is more @ ease now. A corroboration of what I tweeted above. Lebanese president, i.e. Gebran Bassil, assigns @LBpresidency's advisor for diplomatic matters, Charbel Wehbe, as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs.