Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) Although Quebec reported a dip in the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations Tuesday, the number of intensive care unit stays has risen steadily in the past seven days. In this thread, I will try to explain what this means despite continuing information gaps from the government.

2) For eight days, Quebec has not released regional or neighborhood breakdowns of #COVD19 infections, attributing the information blackout to the transfer of data to a new computer system. Texas used the same excuse, but for only two days. kens5.com/article/news/h…

3) As a result, Quebecers have no idea whether the #pandemic is growing or subsiding in their neighborhoods. Perhaps for these reasons nearly one in two Quebecers surveyed in June suspected the government was withholding information from them. cbc.ca/news/canada/mo…

4) The failure to release #COVID data in a timely manner fuels mistrust, the last thing any government wants in a #pandemic. On Tuesday night, nearly 10,000 people signed a petition against Quebec’s decision to allow public gatherings of up to 250 people. change.org/p/quebec-gover…

5) That mistrust toward the government (amid the recent #COVID19 resurgence in Quebec) has now morphed into widespread anxiety among parents and teachers less than a month before schools are set to reopen, in the absence of an updated plan by Education Minister @jfrobergeQc.

6) Unfortunately, without any neighborhood or regional data, I will attempt to make sense of the figures that have been made public by Quebec. That the number of #COVID hospitalizations has declined is undeniably positive, perhaps proof that compulsory face coverings are working.

7) But the steady rise in ICU stays in the past week is a disturbing sign. If the situation is truly improving, Quebec should be reporting drops in both hospitalizations and ICU stays. That is not the case, and at the very least authorities must address this publicly.

8) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 40 new #COVID19 cases, suggesting that the recent resurgence may be tapering off. (See the chart below.) But the number of tests has dropped, too, and the local public health department has not divulged its weekly report on community transmission.

9) Finally, the metropolis posted one #COVID19 fatality Tuesday, raising its death toll to 3,445. The jurisdiction that has declared a death toll closest to Quebec is the nation of Bolivia, with 3,320. I wish I could report more positive news, but I don’t see it. End of thread.