Several things may stand out in this wave of industrial sector surge in #China:
new.cf40.org.cn/uploads/202008…
1. This surge features very different structural changes that deviate temporarily from the historical trend...1/7
The industrial sector is again growing faster than the service sector, which will be the case for quite a while. In Q2 2020, industrial growth was almost 3 percentage points higher than service growth, which was the start of this industrial sector surge in China...2/7
The industrial sector and the non-consumption demands for industrial products are expected to become the pillar of post-pandemic economic growth...3/7
Meanwhile, the proportion of #industrialproduction in #GDP will also rise temporarily. This is similar to what happened in the previous two surges in 2003-2004 and 2009-2012...4/7
2. This wave of surge will be short-lived and weak. On the one hand, it's expected to last for short. Industrial production in China will usher in a boom of over 4 quarters, with its exact duration dependent on the pandemic's situation in China and across the world...5/7
But the growth rate of industrial production will circle back to its normal level below that of the service sector. Besides, this surge lacks support from strong external demands compared with that in 2003-2004...6/7
nor is it founded on huge infrastructure investments as that back in 2009-2012 was. It can be taken as a “boom” only when compared with a weakened service sector. 7/7
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