Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GDP

Most recents (24)

Something worthwhile to think of – people should stop comparing the economy's well-being to people's well-being. There simply is no constant relation between these two, we see it in most developed nations, like the US or Germany.

hbr.org/2019/10/gdp-is…

#GDP #Economy #US #GER
Furthermore, I have got some ideas to add: Even though it's a popular stance nowadays, especially on the liberal progressive left, we have to think about not weighing too much in the economy's well-being, bracing for an ill-prepared future of rising sea levels, melting polar caps
and more frequent natural catastrophes such as droughts and monsoon-like rainfalls, which are both equally going to hit the poor the most. As many have already exclaimed fervently, economic well-being might be our doom, and as populist as it might sound, it's got a true core:
Read 10 tweets
Thread: Blatant #ClimateDenial has lost. The new conflict is whether #ClimateChange is a crisis requiring urgent social and #economic transformation, or something we can adapt to incrementally while carrying on with business as usual. 1/40
2/ A recent opinion piece by Bjorn Lomborg in the @globeandmail is representative of the 'business as usual argument'. Let's deconstruct it to see how this gets passed off as the pragmatic point of view, and why it's false. theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
3/ The basic tactic is this: provide a few common-sense truths to gain the air of pragmatism and then feed us the story we're desperate to hear: that everything will be fine, that growth will outpace #ClimateDamages and life can carry on as usual.
Read 41 tweets
#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/
The initial #Leave case, dramatised by the #BorisBus, contended that UK could save its £350m pw #EU 'gross membership contribution' and pass that 'saving' straight to the #NHS - as 'additional funding'. 2/
The #Leave case focused on saving UK's #EU gross membership cost in favour of #NHS.

It ignored regular #EU annual contributions back into a multiplicity of UK projects, which would obviously be stopped, if we ceased membership.
3/
Read 34 tweets
Corporate Bond Market in India - A snapshot

Corporate Bond Market comprises of all the debt fund-raising/ financing/ fund mobilisation activities by Corporates through debt capital market instruments - Debentures or Bonds. Read on to know more about this market. Thread 1/12
As per SEBI data, the total outstanding corporate bonds in India aggregate to ~ Rs. 30.63 lakh crore.

This is about one third the size of the G-Sec market as well as the aggregate of Bank credit (i.e. total outstanding loans of banks). 2/12
The accumulated value of all the Corporate Bonds outstanding is only about 16% of the GDP.

In comparison, the size of the US corporate bond market to GDP is ~124%. It shows that the corporates in India rely heavily on banks. 3/12
Read 18 tweets
State of the Economy through Charts and Tables

As the GDP growth (at 5%) slowed to a 25 quarter low in Q1 of FY 2020, let us examine the various economic indicators to understand the 'real' state of the Indian economy. Here is a thread. 1/13
1) 2-Wheeler Sales - dipped by ~17% in July, 2019. Motorcycle sales fell by 19% while Scooter sales declined by 12%. Scooters sell more in urban India. Motorcycles sell in both urban as well as rural India. The data shows distress in both India and Bharat. 2/13
2) Car sales - saw a massive YoY volume degrowth of 30.3%. Car purchase is a discretionary spending. People buy cars only when they are assured of future economic prospects. It shows that urban economic sentiment is at rock bottom levels. 3/13
Read 19 tweets
मंदी कैसे आती है - Fun Read😉
एक छोटे से शहर मे एक बहुत ही मश्हूर बनवारी लाल समोसे बेचने वाला था, वो ठेला लगाकर रोज दिन में 500 समोसे खट्टी मीठी चटनी के साथ बेचता था रोज नया तेल इस्तमाल करता था और कभी अगर समोसे बच जाते तो उनको कुत्तो को खिला देता
1
बासी समोसे या चटनी का प्रयोग बिलकुल नहीं करता था, उसकी चटनी भी ग्राहकों को बहुत पसंद थी जिससे समोसों का स्वाद और बढ़ जाता था

कुल मिलाकर उसकी क्वालिटी और सर्विस बहोत ही बढ़िया थी
2
उसका लड़का अभी अभी शहर से अपनी MBA की पढाई पूरी करके आया था, एक दिन लड़का बोला पापा मैंने न्यूज़ में सुना है मंदी आने वाली है, हमे अपने लिए कुछ cost cutting करके कुछ पैसे बचने चाहिए, उस पैसे को हम मंदी के समय इस्तेमाल करेंगे
3
Read 16 tweets
Today I cover the Government Securities (G-Secs) market. G-Secs, in short, are debt instruments through which Government borrows from the public (banks, financial institutions etc.). This post covers the size, type of lenders, and other broad contours of G-Sec market. Thread 1/8
The total size of the G-Sec market is approx. 92.86 lakh crore. In comparison, the size of the listed equity market (total market capitalisation of all listed stocks) was 141.47 lakh crore in July, 2019. (2/8)
Out of the total borrowing of Rs. 92.86 lakh crore, ~ Rs. 64.49 lakh crore borrowing is from Central Govt and the remaining Rs. 28.37 lakh crore borrowing is from State Govts i.e. of the the total borrowings 69.45 % is from Central Govt and 30.55 % is from State Govts. (3/8)
Read 11 tweets
Confirmed: German #GDP also fell in Q2, by 0.1% q/q. Indeed, German GDP is now only 0.4% higher than a year ago, compared to growth of 1.2% in the UK. The equivalent figure of 1.1% for the euro zone as a whole is now likely to be revised down too... (1/4)
The original timing of #Brexit played a part in the fall in German GDP in Q2 too, as activity (eg exports to UK) was brought forward to Q1. But Germany is also more exposed to global trade wars and the #auto crisis, and worried about its currency becoming too *strong*... (2/4)
What’s more, in contrast to the stabilisation in (most) business surveys in the UK, conditions in Germany are continuing to worsen. See, in particular, the July #IFO and #PMIs, and the latest #ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for August (the lowest since December 2011). (3/4)
Read 6 tweets
Any #Brexit would be a total #Catastrophuc for UK! Reasons will follow in this 12 part thread, to be developed over coming days. If you know of any NET benefits from #Brexit, please feed them in. They'd need to be good to match the >£1bn pw this mess is ALREADY costing US! 1/12.
Easiest one first! Full #EU membership (as NOW) gives the UK unrestricted tariff-free & frictionless trade access to an enlarged & well developed HOME market of 550+ million people in 27 fellow member states, being SO much MORE than our own UK of 4 much smaller parts. 2/12.
Brexiteers discount EU's relentless progress in terms of comprehensive trade deals with international markets. While UK has been a busy fool, chasing Brexit and getting nowhere! EU has signed Canada, Korea, Japan and (recently) Brazil & Argentina! All OURS to access NOW! 3/12.
Read 16 tweets
Was indeed a fascinating discussion, and quite a respectful exchange (the kind that we need more in 'New India')... the #greatIndianGDPdebate has certainly not ended, and my takeaways so far are the following #Thread #IPF2019 (1/n)
I thought @arvindsubraman (AS') presentation yesterday was much more sharper, more thought-through, and better articulated compared to his previous paper on this issue (2/n)
He made it clear that he was NOT re-estimating the GDP series but was merely trying to validate using 'demand' side metrics (investment demand, exports etc.) and the dissonance between these indicators and new series was sharp (3/n)
Read 17 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
#GDP #ArvindSubramanian
Now that I have invoked the names of the great "Harvard" educated person. Let me break down what he has actually done! And as he claims he wouldn't have taken ~6 months to complete this paper, max would be a month. Ok diving into this... 1/n
I'm giving a layman's explanation of this so I will refrain from using complicated terms:
1. Get the Revised GDP growth rates from 2011-2017, do a correlation with all publicly available data like auto sales, credit growth, petroleum consumption, IIP data.. etc 2/n
Conclude that the correlation levels are not high enough
2. Use the same GDP data and find out the growth rates vs the same set of data & conclude that the relationship is haphazard (which is normal)
3. Using above two initial tests conclude that GDP is overestimated 3/n
Read 14 tweets
The HMF stated that through the implementation of the ERGP developed in 2017 by President @MBuhari’s administration, the Nigerian economy has achieved 7 consecutive quarters of GDP growth since exiting recession. #FinMinNigeria #ERGP
According to HMF, GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.93% in 2018 compared to 0.82% in 2017 representing an overall increase of 1.11% year-on-year. #FinMinNigeria #GDP
As part of President @Mbuhari’s administrations successful effort to diversify the economy, and deepen non-oil economic performance, the HMF reported a non-oil GDP growth of 2.70% as at Q4 2018 representing a 0.38% increase in growth compared to Q3 2018. #FinMinNigeria #Revenue
Read 6 tweets
#Nigeria's #GDP growth remains just above 2% YoY in Q1 2019, albiet lower than in Q4 2018.
#Nigeria: Real #GDP continues to grow at slightly more than 2% YoY in Q1 2019 (+2.01%). However, this represents a slowdown from 2.38% growth in Q4 2019, and is still well below growth levels before the 2014 oil price crash.
#Africa
The slowdown came from both lower non-oil growth (+2.47% vs +2.70% in Q4) and a deeper contraction of oil #GDP (-2.40% vs -1.62% in Q4). It was the 4th consecutive quarter of decline in the #oil sector.
#Nigeria #Africa
Read 11 tweets
Thread on #GDP, the environment and happiness. As I have already repeatedly pointed out here, GDP is often charged with all the evils of the world, but that is mostly because both the people who use it and those who criticize think it measures things it doesni't measure /
First of all: most of the things I will write here are discussed at length in the excellent "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History" by @DianeCoyle1859 , a book that I consider a masterpiece of economics explained to a general public.
As was said about Hannibal Lecter, if you want to understand evil (or GDP 😉) you need to go back to its origins. Rudimentary attempts to measure national income have existed for centuries. Some of them were actually really valiant attempts, given the state of data at the time
Read 51 tweets
#Panel discussion on "What is the new normal for #CESEE?"
@wiiw_news #wiiwSpringSeminar
Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."
Zubovic: positive trends in #Serbia: - rapid #growth in #IT sector over last 3/4 years w/ 3% to 6% share of GDP - Huge Chinese #investments, but with #externalities - Macroeconomic #stability, no fiscal #deficit anymore - foreign #debt declining - Substantial growth of #GDP
Read 14 tweets
Preliminary observations on #TurkeyElections:
1) The opposition (#Nation bloc) making major gains, including the capital Ankara & Antalya.
2) HDP proved to be kingmakers - swayed votes to the #Nation bloc.
3) AKP losing significant votes & mayors to its #Peoples bloc partner MHP.
Preliminary prediction on #TurkeyElections: AKP cadres have seen that #Erdoğan's strategy of framing the elections around the theme "existential threat" has backfired, and will start complaining of losing votes, municipalities, & spoils to their ultranationalist partner #MHP.
Of #Turkey's 12 largest cities, the opposition is winning at least 7: #Ankara, #İzmir, #Adana, #Antalya, #Mersin, #Eskişehir, & #Diyarbakır. The largest city #Istanbul is a toss-up! #Bursa, too, is too close to call. AKP is losing Turkey's economic power houses. #TurkeyElections
Read 18 tweets
Importance of #Remittances is significant.
@POTUS @RealDonaldTrump has previously floated the idea of partial to complete #Confiscation or #Tariff on monetary #Remittances to #Mexico and other Latin American/Caribbean Nations from within the US. by illegal immigrants. (1) .
Monetary #Remittances to #Mexico and other Latin American/Caribbean Nations from US. by illegal immigrants by % #GDP in 2016:
Mexico-2%
Honduras and El Salvador-20%
Haiti-25%
@Potus can strike at the heart of these nations influx of cash by allowing illegals to send $ home. (2)
Monetary #Remittances to #Mexico and other Latin American/Caribbean Nations from US. by illegal immigrants make up a significant portion of money going to some of the most corrupt governments in the hemisphere. Foreign aid... (3)
Read 6 tweets
#IDES ofMARCH THREAD:
GOT THIS? #NoTaxReturns = #Mobster
MT @CREWcrew: Your daily reminder that #Trump is the first President Elected since #Nixon to refuse to release his #taxreturns, and any payments from Russia remain secret tinyurl.com/yyda3bo3 and we are at War w #ICC
@CREWcrew #IDESofMARCH THREAD:
BY DESIGN #ICC is the enemy of West Civ. They are global promoter of #homophobia #misogyny #racism. IT IS IN THEIR MOB CODE and most are BORN into it. BELIEVE And Share. They are Maggots ON Society and Exposure Weakens them.
@CREWcrew #IDESofMARCH THREAD:
JOURNOS MUST READ CJC #POKE THE BEAR published 11/3/17 Something was wrong. At first, it was just instinct. During the GOP primaries, things weren’t adding up for us with Trump. tinyurl.com/ybuk3z6v @JamesFourM @ninaandtito @lauferlaw @carolecadawalla
Read 17 tweets
The new @wiiw_news Handbook of #Statistics 2018 contains updated key #macroeconomic & structural indicators for 22 economies in #CESEE serving as easy-to-use reference tool & facilitating comparisons across topics, countries & time.
wiiw.ac.at/wiiw-handbook-…
Thread: 1/11
New features of the 2018 ed. include e.g.
- new key indicators at #regional levels
- #wages & #investment data by activity now also available for #Turkey
- comparable #structural breakdown for all countries
Find below examples of some conclusions from the newly released data
2/11
All countries in #CESEE experienced positive #economic #growth in 2017, clear leader was #EUCEE with average real GDP growth of 4.9%. Ten economies achieved their highest real #GDP growth rates over the last 5 years.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
There is severe confusion about the meaning of #economicgrowth. Many seem to mistakenly think that it has to do with #GDP or producing stuff. It does not. Economic growth means that an economy's ability to satisfy people's wants, whatever they are--that is, to produce wellbeing--
increases. GDP is a rather terrible way of capturing this using [public] statistics, and is thus corrupted by those benefitting from corrupting such figures. GDP is not growth. Likewise, having more stuff in stores isn't growth. Producing increasing quantities of stuff that
nobody is willing to buy is the very opposite of economic growth: it is wasting our limited productive capacity. But note the word 'willing'. Wellbeing is not about [objective] needs, but about being able to escape felt uneasiness. It can turn out to be right or wrong, but that's
Read 24 tweets
#GDPbkser 1/n Whenever the GDP base is updated for a fast growing economy, the weights on fast growing sub-sectors increase & on slow growing sub-sectors decrease. The new series therefore shows lower growth rt than old in yrs prior to new base & raises it for yrs post new base.2
#GDPbkser (2/n): If memory serves, historically avg GDP gr rt in yrs btwn old & new base yr has been adjusted down by an avg of -0.5% to -0.75%! The current revision is ~2x the historical avg! Thus reweighting would have lowered past GDP gr rt from 8% to 7% to 7.5%! ...3/
#GDPbkser (3/n) So what needs greater analysis is the rest of decrease in GDP growth rate ie the reduction not explained by re-weighting (~-0.65% ). Some points made by critics are either only partially valid or invalid. (a)Comparing chng in nominal gr with chng in real gr...4/
Read 9 tweets
Ok, some thoughts on the #GDP back series calculated by the #CSO. First, the MCA 21 database on which much of the new methodology is based simply did not exist before 2006-07....More importantly, it was not comparable before 2010-11.
Given the importance of MCA 21 for the GDP calculations, I suspect former chief statistician TCA Anant just did not want to bring out a back series when the MCA21 was not available... and the only alternate was CMIE Prowess data...
The problem that anyone will have in the current back series will not be about methodology. It will be about the assumptions and alternate data sources used for calculations because comparable data did not exist
Read 8 tweets
@hd_kumaraswamy @DrParameshwara @BSYBJP @siddaramaiah @bjparvind @PCMohanMP,Pls take responsibility for failure of Road,Mobility Infra Ward Reforms for #Bellandur & fix it now.10000+ ppl protest for basics but u all busy with byelection!
goo.gl/pXctUi
#SaveBellandur
@hd_kumaraswamy @DrParameshwara @BSYBJP @siddaramaiah @bjparvind @PCMohanMP ಮಾನ್ಯರೆ,ಬೆಳ್ಳಂದೂರಿನ ರಸ್ತೆ,ಸಾರ್ವಜನಿಕ ಸಾರಿಗೆ,ಮೂಲಸೌಕರ್ಯದ ಕೊರತೆ ಹಾಗು ಈಗಿನ ದುಸ್ಥಿತಿಗೆ ಒಟ್ಟಾರೆ ಜವಾಬ್ದಾರಿ ಹೊತ್ತು ತುರ್ತಾಗಿ ಸರಿಪಡಿಸಿ.ಉಪಚುನಾವಣೆ,10000+ ಜನರ ನೋವಿಗಿಂತ ಮುಖ್ಯವೇ?#ಬೆಳ್ಳಂದೂರುಉಳಿಸಿ #SaveBellandur @rajeev_mp
Read 54 tweets

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