Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GDP

Most recents (24)

#India #PublicDebt to #GDP - CAN INDIA Sustain a High Real GDP growth say 6% for 15 years ?
Empirical Evidence collected by several peer reviewed papers indicate an economy's growth Faulters when PUBLIC DEBT > 85-90% . India Debt/GDP = 90%. Chart 2 implications. COMMENTS welcome ImageImage
See how Indias Debt to GDP has reached almost 90% despite Indias TAX TO GDP ratio being at its LIFE-TIME high... Image
And Empirical Evidence from over 32 economies which have witnessed development indicate that LongTerm REAL gdp growth struggles to exceed 3-4% over a 5 to 15 year time-frame. Image
Read 6 tweets
How much did #sanctions affect #Russia's economy? A lot: By the end of 2022, it will be ~10% smaller than it would have been without sanctions. For this scenario, I used the latest -2.8% #GDP forecast for 2022 & a pre-sanctions +3% forecast (both from 🇷🇺Economy Ministry). 1/3
The GDP index (Jun 21-Dec 22) is normalized to Feb 22 = 100. It is based on the inVEB GDP index (blue). The green line is based on constant mohtly growth that equates to 3% annual growth in 2022. The gray line is Nov/Dec 2022 if the Ministry's -2.8% scenario comes true. 2/3
It is very important to not confuse #Russia's annual GDP growth/decline with the #sanctions' effect. Both are related, but very different figures. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
(1/7) #Bullmarkets are periods of increased #asset values due to regular #price fluctuations. This thread emphasizes on its causes and characteristics. 🐮🧵

Learn More 👇…
(2/7) Wage growth, capital inflows, minimal unemployment, strong #consumer spending, and increasing corporate #profits are all factors that lead to sustainable #bullruns. 🐮📈
(3/7) Characteristics of a #BullCycle:
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨‍💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
Read 7 tweets
1/15 - Become a better trader by tracking markets and learning how to make your own decisions. Don’t try to chase other peoples trades or fall victim to overly simplified narratives from those with vested interests. Here’s how I do it with the data I provide 👇
2/15 - For context, know which type of macro market Mode we’re in, by mapping the monthly rate of change in growth #GDP and inflation #CPI. The closer we are to the zero point, the more impact the #Fed has on markets.
3/15 - Appreciate what the #YieldCurve in bonds looks like and their spreads. Steep yield curves suggest a growing economy and potentially rising inflation, while flat and inverted curves indicate uncertainty and stock market declines.
Read 15 tweets
The stock market leads the economy
(evidence bellow)

Where are we now? ;)

#BusinessCycle #SPX #GDP Image
Are we approaching this point?

#Cycles Image
Bond prices lead stocks
and stocks lead the economic cycle
commodities are generally considered “late cycle”

Where do YOU think we are? 🤔 Image
Read 3 tweets
JUST IN: #BNNRussia Reports.

Russia has entered a recession as a result of the economic pressure caused by Western sanctions, showed official figures released on Wednesday. #Recession #Russia #GDP
Russia’s GDP decreased by four percent in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the national statistics office Rosstat.
A 22.6 percent decline in wholesale trade and a 9.1 percent decline in retail trade were the main contributors to the contraction.
Read 4 tweets
Check out our today’s paper edition on… Image
Amid concerns over global economic activity and reduced cross-border trade, Indonesia has posted another solid GDP reading, setting the country apart from many others ahead of the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit. #gdp #q3 #indonesia

Read more:… Image
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned world leaders at a climate summit in Egypt on Monday that humanity faced a stark choice between working together or "collective suicide" in the battle against global warming. #cop27 #un

Read more:…
Read 11 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
THREAD: #Sunak, the man who created this "profound #economic #crisis, seems to have no clue how to fix it - less than #Kwarteng for sure!
No, I & millions of others are not happy about paying for your mistakes #Sunak!
cont. Image
Not happy because #Sunak is choosing the worst possible route forward, increasing taxation on those who have the least income to spare - remembering the truly rich do not pay income tax... he would know that, wouldn't he!
Read 10 tweets
Ich hab mal ein paar Gedanken und jeder weiß, dass ich die #LetzteGeneration durchaus kritisch bewerte:
Laut der letzten Generation kleben sich Personen innerhalb der Rettungsgasse nicht fest und können aus dem Weg gehen.
In einem Stau ist eine Rettungsgasse zu bilden. Auch 1/
wenn der "Stau" nur das Halten vor einer Ampel ist. Links, ganz nach links, alles rechts davon, ganz nach rechts. Platz um dann durchzukommen ist genug auf Hauptstraßen.
Wie gut Rettungsgassen klappen, werden euch Polizei,
Feuerwehr und Rettungsdienst sicher sagen können: 2/
Kurzum: Beschissen. Es wird einem in der Fahrschule beigebracht, egal wie alt man ist und bei den ganzen Autos (inklusive meinem) die mit einer Erklärung auf dem Heck rumfahren, müsste es jedem der es nicht wusste, schon mal nachträglich erklärt worden sein.

Wir haben hier 3/
Read 15 tweets
China Q3 GDP data:
Q3 GDP YoY +3.9%[Est.+3.3%;Prev.+0.4%]
Q3 GDP QoQ +3.9%[Prev.-2.6%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
More data will be updated in this thread.
#China #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
China' Sept urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.5%[Est. 5.2%; Prev. 5.3%]
Jan-Sept urban fixed assets investment +5.9% y/y [Est.+6.00%;Prev.+5.8%]
Industrial value-added +6.3% y/y [Est.+4.5%;Prev.+4.2%]
Retail sales +2.5% y/y [Est.3.3%;Prev.5.4%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
Read 7 tweets
#Engel suunnitteli tämän rakennuksen #Senaatintori'n ladalle, mutta #venäläiset rakensivat sen.
- Kuten #siionisti'en määräämät #Lenin- ja #RauhanPatsas poistot, tämä häpeällinen 'valtioneuvoston linna', olisi enempien miljardi -tuhojen estämiseksi poistettava #WTC911 tapaan. Image
Niinsanotun 'Valtioneuvoston', linna
- Eugen #Schauman ampui kenraalikuvernööri Nikolai #Bobrikovin kuoliaaksi linnan toisen kerroksen tasanteella vuonna 1904. Surmapaikalle on myöhemmin kiinnitetty muistolaatta.… ImageImage
The #Davos controlled #FifthColumn, selected by rigged #elections in 2019 in the #HappiestCountry.
- The only target is to destroy #Finnish #economy by crushing the resistance using famine, to pave a way to a archipelago of #NATO #NuclearWeapons. Image
Read 9 tweets
A look at India Vs the Rest of the world!

A Thread!

#india #economy #globaleconomy #inflation

India is emerging as one of the relatively better-off economies in the post-COVID world.


Looking closely, we find that India’s inflation is well controlled, ATH FX reserves have acted well as a shock absorber against volatility, and our GDP growth expectations is one the highest in the world!

#inflation #volatility #GDP

Read 8 tweets
(1/12) Understanding mega cap companies helps us understand the broader #market because they have such an outsized impact on the indices people track and invest in. Yesterday we talked about big / ad #tech ( $GOOG $META) and today we are talking #retail.
(2/12) People forget that Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN are the largest companies in the world by sales...

Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
(3/12) So lets take a look at the state of retail from the top down (macro / economy level) and then from the bottom up (micro / company level)…

We are bottoms up investors, but pay close attention to the macro as an overlay (and just out of interest!).
Read 12 tweets
The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.

Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...

Should the #Fed #pivot and why?

Let's demystify all this.

A thread.

Those that follow me know I've been calling the #Fed to #pivot for quite a while.

Ever since mid-May it's been clear to me the #US #economy is in a #recession which should prompt the #Fed to #pivot in Sep.

And every important economic indicator warranted the #Fed #pivot.

But the #Fed decided to turn the blind eye to the #economy in an effort to try to regain some of the credibility they lost last yr by "transitory" talk.

So instead of amending things, they have made another policy error.

Here is more about this:

Read 25 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022

#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets

#StockMarket Image
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%

#StockMarket Image
Read 49 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
#China's August urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.3%[Est. 5.4%;Prev. 5.4%]
Jan-Aug urban fixed investment +5.8% y/y [Est.+5.5%;Prev.+5.7%]
Aug industrial value-added +4.2% y/y [Est.+3.8%;Prev.+3.8%]
Aug retail sales +5.4% y/y [Est.+3.5%;Prev.+2.7%]
1/n #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
China produced 5.74 million tons of non-ferrous metal in August, which rose by 6.7%, the most since January 2021.
Jan-Aug non-ferrous metal productions +1.9% to 44 million tons.
2/ #China #copper #aluminum
In Aug, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.6258 trillion yuan, up 5.4% y/y but dropped 0.05% m/m.
Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.25 trillion yuan, which rose by 5.1% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 374.8 billion yuan, surged 8.4% y/y.
Read 6 tweets
7 years after the new #GDP series was unveiled, it continues to baffle analysts, investors, and citizens of the country.
Rahul's #thread below is right on some aspects of the GDP calculations and not on others.
Hence this thread of mine! (1/n)
First, I must point out that the very fact that we are still trying to figure out what the GDP data actually conveys so many years after the revision was made tells us something.
Had @GoIStats' transparency and documentation levels been higher, this wouldn't have happened. (2/n)
Second, Rahul is right about deflators being a key problem in the GDP calculations. However, the impression being conveyed that earlier it was all volume-based is not true. Even earlier, it was a mix of volume and value-based calculations. (3/n)
Read 20 tweets
Do You Know Who Is the First Billionaire?

Here is A Small Thread 🧵
John Davison Rockefeller was the world's 1st billionaire
He was an American business magnate and philanthropist. He has been widely considered the wealthiest American of all time and the richest person in modern history.
#johndavison #business
John Davison Rockefeller with a fortune worth nearly 2% of the national economy. His personal wealth was estimated in 1913 at $900 million, which was almost 3% of the US GDP of $39.1 billion that year.
#wealth #GDP
Read 8 tweets
#GDP, again: "The contrast between overall #wellbeing and economic #growth is perhaps most evident in the #US. Between 2020 and 2021 US GDP increased by 9.08%, but during that same period, #LifeExpectancy actually decreased by 0.39 years."…
"A recent report from the #Wellbeing Economy Alliance (which one of us works for) found the countries that prioritised well-being over economic growth during #COVID fared better from a health and economic standpoint."
Read 5 tweets
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…


#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.


#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.


#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. Image
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector. Image
Read 12 tweets

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