Very good thread by @and_huh_what. Seems to me the current govt wishes its BATNA would be Biden doubling-down on it, US-TB agreement be damned. More likely is its WATNA: US grows tired of its feet-dragging and heads for the exit before a deal is done. 1/n
The govt’s perceived position of weakness for peace talks isn’t b/c of the US-TB deal. It’s because the govt is highly corrupt & divided, has been militarily losing for the past 5 years, & global trends have made it far less important to its primary backers over time. 2/n
Contrary to popular belief, the war is not stalemated. The #Taliban have been steadily gaining ground tactically & operationally for years. The US-TB deal was borne of those trends + US recognition that the ROI on its interests in #Afghanistan is bad & getting worse. 3/n
What’s the best the *Afghan govt* could hope for? A near-term, power-sharing agreement that avoids further deterioration of the country & ends violence for its citizens. But that won’t happen w/o strong US pressure b/c it runs against the interests of the *people in the govt* 4/n
More likely trend—regardless of US admin—is increasing US pressure on the govt to make concessions & get to a deal. The more the govt resists & the longer the process takes, the worse its position will get & the greater its concessions will need to be. 5/n
The reality is that the #Afghanistan govt’s BATNA is currently not great and will get consistently worse. As an entity, its best bet is to negotiate NOW. 6/6
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