Thread by @OHAOregon

OHA State Health Officer Dr. Dean Sidelinger speaking during today’s press conference: "Today we released our latest modeling which shows that although we’re making progress against #COVID19, we cannot let up": oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASE…

"The model shows that the current rate of transmission has fallen to a point where each case is generating less than one other case. In fact, it shows each case is currently generating .9 other cases. For this reason, daily case numbers are dropping."

"This is tremendous progress. But that will only continue if we keep up the pressure. We cannot ease up and allow #LaborDay social gathers to send our rate back up."

"If we continue with our current precautions, and if the transmission rate continues as it is today, then by September 24th, the new daily cases would drop to 410 from today’s 560, resulting in us learning about approximately 150 of those cases."

"If Oregonians continue to practice safety measures that cause the rate of transmission to drop by 5%, by 9/24, we estimate we’d see 240 daily cases & diagnose roughly 90 of them. In this scenario the reproduction rate would be slightly lower at .77."

"Finally, if Oregonians stop practicing precautions, or celebrate #LaborDay in unsafe ways, we envision a scenario where case rates would rise again. If the transmission rate were to rise by 5% from current levels daily cases would rise to 790, with 180 diagnosed per day."

"The takeaway from our model this week is very clear: We’ve made great progress through hard work and sacrifice, but those gains are tenuous. As a result of this progress we are gradually returning some welcome activities, such as the reopening of public pools and parks."

"There is so much at stake if we fail to keep up the pressure. So again, we urge you to enjoy the holiday safely: Celebrate with your household. Stay close to home. Wear a mask or face covering. Wash your hands frequently."