4 new polls in some less oft polled states from the A+ rated NYT/Siena.
The numbers do show a tight race (NV % NH particularly). And Biden's chances in our model drop 2.4% though, down to 89.6%:
electoralpolls.com
New Hampshire is the surprise one for me. Much closer than recent polling showed and drops Biden's chance a fair amount in our model:
electoralpolls.com/new_hampshire
He goes from an 84% chance to win down to a 70% chance. Changing the state from Likely Biden to Lean Biden.
The worst number for Trump here is #Minnesota in my opinion. The polls before this showed Biden +6.2%. This is significantly better and bumps him up to +6.8%
electoralpolls.com/minnesota
He's now up to a 94% chance to win the state.
The #Nevada number is closer than one might think, but is actually very much in line with polling so far:
electoralpolls.com/nevada
Biden actually gains a little in our model, moving from a 66% chance to win up to a 70% chance. He's +4.8% in the polling average.
This #Wisconsin number is closer than other polls are showing and frankly much closer than I was expecting. There's so many polls from WI lately it doesn't effect the model much:
electoralpolls.com/wisconsin
But it does change the state from Safe Biden to Likely Biden.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.