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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
1/13
Capisco che ci avevano avvisati, ma noi malati di politica abbiamo un difetto: vogliamo sempre sapere come andrà a finire. In questo caso parliamo di #Midterms2022. E lo facciamo volutamente, pur sapendo che in queste ore tra Italia e Francia monta un poco edificante caso Image
2/n
diplomatico sulla pelle di alcune centinaia di #migranti. È un copione che questo Blog aveva ampiamente annunciato, e non perché spicchi per capacità predittive, ma perché le avvisaglie c'erano da tempo. E i protagonisti mancano di fantasia. Dedichiamoci allora alla politica,
3/n
quella vera, quella che - piaccia o no ai complottisti trumpiani che da un paio di giorni (o di anni?) mi chiedono di parlare di fantomatici brogli - ha vissuto un momento importantissimo con il voto di #midterm.
A che punto siamo? Al #Senato la situazione è la seguente. Image
Read 13 tweets
🚨🇺🇸Aggiornamento #Midterms2022.
1/8
La partita è davvero avvincente. Non ci credete? Guardate questa grafica.
Quando negli USA è quasi l'alba ancora non è chiaro chi guiderà il Congresso. Devo tenermi sul vago. Sì, perché il discorso vale sia per il #Senato che per la #Camera.
2/n
Partiamo dal Senato. Quello che ripetono i networks USA è il seguente messaggio: sarà lunga.
In #Georgia, uno degli Stati chiave per il controllo del Senato, la situazione è la seguente:
🔵 Warnock (Democratici) a spoglio quasi ultimato conduce col 49,2%. Ma per il NYT
3/n
difficilmente andrà oltre il 49,5%. Dunque sarà sotto la soglia del 50% che serve a conquistare il seggio. Se così fosse prepariamoci ad un ballottaggio thrilling il prossimo 6 dicembre con il Repubblicano Walker.
Altro Stato chiave è
Read 8 tweets
1/21
Se l'incertezza è il fattore dominante dell'anno, allora le #Midterms2022 non potevano fare eccezione. La politica #Usa si ferma per guardarsi allo specchio, per scattare una foto al giro di boa della grande corsa che condurrà tra due anni (sì, solo 2) alle presidenziali.
2/n
🇺🇸 Cosa c'è in palio?
La risposta corretta è la seguente: il rinnovo di 435 deputati alla Camera e di 35 seggi al Senato. E poi 36 poltrone da governatore dello Stato, per non parlare delle centinaia di referendum statali e delle migliaia di cittadine chiamate ad indicare il
3/n
proprio "mayor". Poi però c'è dell'altro. C'è la risposta politica. Quella per cui Joe Biden corre il rischio di trasformarsi nella cosidetta "anatra zoppa", nell'inquilino della Casa Bianca che non controlla le camere (una o due?) ed è vittima dei veti del partito rivale,
Read 21 tweets
Pour bien suivre les #midterms US cette nuit et demain, ma toute nouvelle chronique ce soir pour @Lesjoursfr: #Biden, le vide devant soi. Suivez le guide😉
A lire pour les abonnées et abonnés!
2. Et en complément de l'article pour @Lesjoursfr avec l'analyse historique et politique de fond, petit guide heure par heure des fermetures de bureaux de vote (en heure française) et les courses à suivre...👇
3. A minuit, les bureaux ferment en Indiana. Et on regardera le 1er district de la Chambre dans cet Etat, démocrate de toute éternité, et qui peut basculer républicain pour la 1ère fois. Si c'est le cas, ça sentira TRES mauvais pour les démocrates... cbsnews.com/chicago/news/c…
Read 18 tweets
I candidati repubblicani negli Stati chiave cercano sempre di più di bloccare i voti via posta espressi dai democratici, che accusano: si tratta di tentativi di impedire il voto dei gruppi più svantaggiati. Thread a seguire 🧵⤵️
In #Pennsylvania, la Corte Suprema statale ha dato ragione al Comitato Nazionale Repubblicano sul fatto che i funzionari elettorali non devono contare le schede su cui l'elettore ha trascurato di apporre la data sulla busta esterna.
In particolare anche nei casi in cui le schede sono arrivate prima del giorno delle elezioni e quindi altrimenti sarebbero pienamente legittime. Di conseguenza, migliaia di schede votare via posta sono state accantonate, tanto da poter cambiare il risultato in una sfida serrata.
Read 21 tweets
Here is grandma in her early 20s dressed as a hula girl in the #Wisconsin snow on a bet.
She’s still so fun.
Your 👵🏼 sucks compared to my 👵🏼. Image
Look at grandma with the great-grand 🐶! It’s just so cute 🥰 Image
Read 4 tweets
Using @SenTedCruz’s Halloween meme as an educational tool for the complexity (note sarcasm) of the GQP #midterms ideological agenda. A reminder of the Cruz Zodiac Killer memes existence is warranted here.
Let’s go, a 🧵: Cruz did the Spirit Halloween meme of Biden, blaming him for
1. @tedcruz why do you hate @POTUS’s aviators game? Because you can’t pull them off? Or your wayfairers, per @GQMagazine? Ouch.

gq.com/story/ted-cruz…
2. The ice cream. Remember when you had some on a stop through MY TOWN of #Milwaukee and your bizarre ice cream eating strategy became meme fodder?
I SURE DO. @WisDems
thewrap.com/ted-cruz-ice-c…
Read 8 tweets
I'm not only angry, I'm scared. If you had seen what I saw and if you knew what I know, you would be too.
#MisinformationKills
misinformationkills.substack.com/p/i-am-right-t…
I did not sign up for this and the moral injury has come at a massive personal toll. I am right to have been and continue to be this angry. I feel an electrifying rage throughout me like a case of long Covid to the soul.
It is internally so destructive that I don’t allow myself to stop working because if I do I worry I’ll completely fall apart.
Read 7 tweets
"the president’s clearest attempt to inject spiraling threats to democracy, lies of conspiracy and malice, and violent intimidation into the midterms...

...Biden blamed his predecessor, Donald Trump, for stoking divisions in the country and breeding election denialism."
And he warned that election-denying Trump acolytes were “running for every level of office in America.”:

“That is the path to chaos in America,” Biden said. “It’s unprecedented, it’s unlawful and it’s un-American.”

Thats you @SenRonJohnson.
Vote @TheOtherMandela + @WisDems.
Read 4 tweets
Meet the Council for National Policy.
$$$ by: @KochIndustries, @NRA, @Heritage, Milwaukee's own @BradleyFdn, Russia(!)

Key Names:
-Steve Bannon
-@Mike_Pence
-@KellyannePolls
-Ginni Thomas
-And now, Dr. Simone Gold

@COVIDOversight
newrepublic.com/article/167002…
For more on the CNP, see here. exposedbycmd.org/2022/03/11/rev…
@ExposedbyCMD tied Koch Industries financing to the "die for the economy" "mass infection strategy" known as the Great Barrington Declaration and its spin offs like the Brownstone Institute.
exposedbycmd.org/2021/12/22/how…
Read 20 tweets
Mounting concerns about the safety of US election workers ahead of #Election2022

@TheJusticeDept Asst AG Kenneth Polite, Jr. met Tuesday w/300 officials, workers to discuss "available grant funding for physical security enhancements"

#Arizona #Colorado #Delaware #Wisconsin
More: the election officials, workers also "received an update on the work of the Justice Department’s Election Threats Task Force, including a briefing from the @FBI on communication & coordination... in the lead up to the November election" per @TheJusticeDept
On Monday, senior @FBI officials said since June 2021 there have been more than 1,000 reported threats to election workers -58% from just 7 US states
Read 4 tweets
NEW: W/less than 2 months til #Election2022, US "not aware of any adversary #cyber campaigns specifically targeting US elections" per sr @FBI official

BUT adversaries "could seek to spread or amplify false or exaggerated claims of compromise to election infrastructure"
NEW: @FBI warns #Russia #China #Iran "will take advantage of election integrity narratives that come up in the US election ecosystem" per 2nd senior official

"We've seen that already specifically form Russia"

#Election2022
NEW: Ahead of #Election2022 #Russia|n gvt "expanding the ecosystem that they are using to try to identify & recruit both witting & unwitting proxy organizations" per 2nd senior @FBI official

"I think we can infer that they [Russia] think this has been relatively successful..."
Read 10 tweets
Hey! I betcha you didn’t know this about Wisconsin.

We helped create the idea for Social Security AND put it into place as the FIRST SOCIAL SECURITY ACT in 1935.

( 1/9 )
#Wisconsin #Republican #democrats #mandelabarnes #tonyevers #SocialSecurityFairnessAct #socialsecurity
Background:
John R. Commons, a professor at the University of Wisconsin, helped create the American Association for Labor Legislation - Group that advocated for national health insurance- on February 15, 1906.

This group held the driving force behind…
( 2/9 )
…”worker’s compensation, occupational health & safety, and child labor laws” (snaccooperative.org/view/54028225)

1909 the first worker’s compensation came through!

1911 - “Workmen’s Compensation Act” enacted May 3rd, effective as of September 1st, SUPPORTED by WI Supreme Court

( 3/9 )
Read 12 tweets
#FactCheck 🧵re: #CashBail, @TheOtherMandela #Barnes & @RonJohnsonWI
* In our country everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty at trial. This is true even though they may have been arrested & charged w/a crime.

*#Wisconsin & the fed. gov't both have ... 1/9
#WisPol ImageImage
#FactCheck 🧵re: #CashBail, @TheOtherMandela #Barnes & @RonJohnsonWI
...criminal laws, but different approaches re: protecting constitutional #RightsOfAccused AND #PublicSafety.

*U.S. government procedure does NOT generally rely on cash bail — it only considers ... 2/9
#WisPol Image
#FactCheck 🧵re: #CashBail, @TheOtherMandela #Barnes & @RonJohnsonWI
... public safety. #Wisconsin, in contrast, relies on setting an amount of #CashBail to ensure defendant shows up for trial.

*Wisco’s system of cash bail gives great advantages to ppl w/money... 3/9
#WisPol Image
Read 9 tweets
🚨🚨🚨 Please retweet! 🚨🚨🚨

Below is link to the copy of the report about the REAL Origin of SARS-CoV2 sent to the US Senate and Congress last week.

My declaration in the document was provided under oath with penalty of perjury.

docs.google.com/viewerng/viewe… ImageImageImage
Read 77 tweets
I received an email yesterday from an attorney, demanding I remove Tweets in which I noted that Sherrilyn Fisher, wife of @KennethLFisher, is the largest individual donor to Republicans, $2.8 million according to @OpenSecretsDC. opensecrets.org/elections-over…
I deleted my previous Tweets to clarify Sherrilyn Fisher's $2.8 mil donation to Republicans.

"neither Ken nor Sherri Fisher has ever made any donation - whether directly or through any entity, whether of funds or anything of value - to Doug Mastriano or any campaign of his..."
Lucas Kunce is running for U.S. Senator from Missouri.

I have asked the Fishers' attorney whether any of Sherrilyn Fisher's reported $2.8 donations to Republicans went to Republicans who turned their backs on veterans who were exposed to toxic burn pits.
Read 13 tweets
Eté 2022: Donald #Trump continue à harceler le président républicain de la Chambre du Wisconsin, Vos pour qu'il fasse invalider le résultat de la présidentielle de novembre 2020 dans cet Etat. Quelqu'un de célèbre aurait parlé de "coup d'Etat permanent"...washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
...on arrive ainsi à 1 situation inédite en démocratie. 1 ex-président (#Trump), qui a inspiré 1 coup de force factieux contre le Congrès le 6/01/2021 mais s'en tire sans aucune sanction, prépare son retour au pouvoir par les urnes, en niant toujours leur précédent résultat.2/
On peut toujours penser et arguer que #Trump ne sera pas investi par le parti républicain en 2024- mais l'historique de soumission depuis 2015 et les résultats des primaires 2022 amènent à 1 jugement bien plus nuancé- mais 1 question se pose d'ores et déjà...3/
Read 12 tweets
THREAD: So if you love #fishing and your water, something to consider. I have bald eagles, trumpeter swans, pelicans, herons here on the Lower #Wisconsin #River. Lead kills #birds. I lose probably more than my share of jigs and hanging with the @riveralliancewi got me thinking.
I am more pragmatist than activist, but #environmentalism hits home as you watch eagles soar as you fish pristine, delicate waterways. The 92 miles LWR is mostly in conservancy, and is recognized as a @RamsarConv Wetlands of International Importance. rsis.ramsar.org/ris/2417
So I cultivated a local guy who makes lures out of his garage. Very skilled fisherman too and I have learned a lot from him out on the water. Had him cast me this initial run of jigs out of tin bismuth alloy.
Read 5 tweets
So it appears as if the #B1G may hold off on further expansion until atleast 2024 (why 2024?, ND/NBC contract expires in April 2025 & the BigTen won't make a move w/out a definitive answer from the Irish). Let's take a look at what Pods may look like from the new 16 team B1G.🧵
Pod 1
USC
UCLA
Northwestern
Illinois

Travel is going to be a nightmare for USC/UCLA. The #B1G would be wise to try and ease that as much as possible. The easiest/closest travel from LA would be to Chicago hence Northwestern. Illinois comes along as NW's biggest rival.
Pod 2
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin

This Pod is fairly self explanatory. Preservation of the historic Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin rivalries is obtained and the new additional rivalries w/ Nebraska are nurtured. #B1G shouldn't spilt these four.
Read 16 tweets
#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates

TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS):

46.33% BA.2.12.1**,
17.07% BA.5^^,
15.30% BA.2,
9.02% BA.4^^,
5.80% BA.2.12,
1.75% BA.2.3 and
1.21% BA.2.9

**S:L452Q; ^^S:L452R/F486V

Tracker: tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7
#OmicronUpdates 06/23/22 Image
#OmicronVariantUpdates #UnitedStates 06/23/22

Top 5 lineages:
BA.2.12.1, ⬇️ (Spike: L452Q)
BA.5, ⬆️ (Spike: L452R)
BA.2 ⬇️
BA.4 ⬆️ (Spike: L452R)
BA.2.12

* includes recently designated BA.2.x.y and undesignated BA.2s Image
Read 12 tweets
We are roughly 2 months away from the start of #CFB season! Lets talk expectations. Ill go through each team & give what my model predicts as the % chance each team gets to bowl eligbility, and also the % chance each team gets 10+ Ws given their respective schedules. Lets go!🧵
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws)

#Alabama #RTR 99.9%/89.5%
#Arkansas #WPS 55.3%/11.0%
#Auburn #WarEagle 36.9%/1.8%
#Florida #Gators 81.0%/17.4%
#Georgia #UGA 99.9%/93.3%
#Kentucky #BBN 66.7%/7.3%
#LSU #GeauxTigers 81.8%/29.1%
#HailState 47.8%/2.6%
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws) (cont)
#Mizzou 69.2%/11.6%
#OleMiss 96.9%/41.4%
#SouthCarolina 31.2%/0.8%
#Tennessee #Vols 95.3%/35.6%
#TAMU #GigEm 99.0%/75.1%
#Vanderbilt #AnchorDown 2.3%/ <0.1%
Read 12 tweets
A birthday thread:

So this is me at 50.  
I feel like 35, but with 15 years of experience.
I have seen a lot these past few years, good and bad. 
Maybe this old man can share a little bit of what I have learned:
Be humble and gracious. None of us have done anything on our own. We are who we are because of the people around us. Acknowledge them. Thank them. Saying thanks goes a long way
Be respectful. This world is full of people with opinions different from yours. Their experiences are different from yours. Listen to their story. You will probably find that your thoughts aren't all that different. Make friends, not enemies.
Read 8 tweets
1. New county-level #risk indicators released by @CDCgov last night.

Here's your look at weekly #transmission levels since Feb 24.

After looking much better in March, we're continuing to see rates of newly reported cases increasing in most US regions.
2. But, as has been the case for a while, when basing risk level on #hospitalization rates and hospital capacity, at least visually, the story is very different.
3. This shows CHANGE in each metric yesterday compared to 1 week prior. Many more places worsening than improving.

14% of the population worsened on the hospital-based measure; only 1% improved.

23% of the population worsened on the transmission-based measure; only 6% improved.
Read 7 tweets

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