Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) Montreal is once again on the verge of becoming the epicenter of Canada’s #pandemic as it posted 96 new #COVID cases Tuesday, the highest since the tail end of the last wave. In this thread, I will assess the dire implications of the city’s latest predicament.

2) The last time Montreal posted a higher daily number was on June 6, right before #pandemic was brought under control briefly in the city. Dr. Mylène Drouin, director of the local public health department, was blunt in her update Tuesday. "All indicators are up," she warned.

3) “Yes, it’s worrisome for Montreal,” Drouin added. She noted that hospitalizations — perhaps the best indicator of the severity of the #pandemic — are up slightly in the city. There are at least seven outbreaks in schools, 24 in the workplace and three in eldercare homes.

4) Montreal declared 96 cases, up from 39 the day before amid record-setting testing. Montreal’s rolling seven-day average rose to 26.41 cases per million residents. By comparison, the more populous city of Toronto reported 73 cases, also amid record-high #COVID19 screening.

5) At the neighborhood level, four health districts reported upticks in new #COVID19 cases in the double digits, as the chart below indicates. The highest number was reported in the city’s hitherto hot spot of Montreal North, the second day it posted cases in the double digits.

6) Drouin pointed out that during the first wave of the #pandemic, most people were confined to their homes and for each outbreak there were only a few contacts per case to retrace. But now it’s much more difficult, with up to 100 contacts to retrace per #COVID19 case.

7) It’s not just harder for investigators to retrace contacts. The city has reopened in full. Public gatherings of 250 people are allowed despite doctors’ objections. Bars are open despite outbreaks. Combat sports are back on, creating conditions susceptible for the resurgence.

8) Drouin also confirmed what I’ve long been sounding the alarm about: the city’s health network has been rendered more “fragile” since the start of the #pandemic in March. Take a look at the chart below showing the ER at Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital filled to 130% capacity.

9) Montreal was declared a yellow zone on Tuesday. The city is in a "pre-alert" phase, according to the government’s #pandemic warning system. That means all current activities can continue, with no added restrictions. Does that make sense given what’s now happening in the city?

10) Authorities must first collect all manner of data before declaring a region yellow, orange or red — a delay of days that lags behind the swift pace of the #pandemic. Why wait to impose restrictions before it may be too late? End of thread. Please stay safe everyone.