Mustafa Adib is not the hero some people are portraying him to be. But Adib, banking on French support & the suffocating situation on the ground, had a stronger hand in negotiating his government formation process - unlike his predecessors. The PM-designate though that:
•parties will cave-in following the Aug 4 explosion & Int’l pressure, resulting in them facilitating the formation of a gov’t that can enact certain reforms and tap into some $$s.
However, reality hit hard. #Lebanon, as usual, is just another piece of the regional chessboard.
Hence why, regional patrons of the sectarian ruling mafia decided to “freeze” the situation until November 3rd. When the Iranians [Hezbollah] and the Saudis [economic support: CEDRE/IMF] figure out who will occupy the Oval Office next, concessions & compromise become possible.
Their logic could be: the US presidential elections is only 38 days away & despite the economic meltdown, #Lebanon won’t starve until then. So, despite possibly angering the French, a better deal is a deal made with a “fresh” president. Until then, we keep an eye on 3 things:
•David Schenker’s efforts in restarting talks [direct/indirect] on demarcation between Lebanon & Israel.
•Possible sanctions: US & EU
•A possible repetition of a Ain-Aqaba scenario [mysterious fires/explosions]
#End.
Ain-Qana** [thank you autocorrect for putting me in trouble with the Jordanians 😅].
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