The U.S. 'early' travel ban wasn't early, it wasn't a ban, and it wasn't effective
Worse still, the widespread use of travel bans by US & others have made us less safe.
New in @washingtonpost on from @JenniferNuzzo & me 1/
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
1. The US wasn't early
45 other countries implemented travel restrictions against China before US did on Feb. 2
At that point, US & 20+ other countries had already reported #COVID19 cases. Several were even reporting local transmission of cases 2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel…
Between the first official report of outbreak in China & announcement of U.S. travel restrictions, 40,000+ travelers from China are estimated to have entered United States 3/
nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/…
The measure that Trump administration implemented on Feb. 2 cannot be described as a “ban" that "closed the country" 4/
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
Restricting flights from China did nothing to prevent #SARSCoV2 from arriving from other parts of the world.
Genetic analyses have shown that large epidemic that unfolded in New York was linked to travelers from Europe 5/
science.sciencemag.org/content/369/65…
When Trump admin. expanded travel restrictions to Iran on 2/28 & to Europe on 3/12, it was too late
The US was approaching 2,000 cases, most likely a severe undercount
Chaotic implementation of ban on EU probably did more to spread virus than stop it 6/
politico.com/news/2020/03/1…
Scenario analysis suggests combination of travel restrictions within China and international travel restrictions against China may have delayed the spread of #COVID19
but... /7
science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
..those delays were more useful in nations such as New Zealand, Australia & Taiwan that used opportunity to expand testing, contact tracing and other aggressive measures to control spread of virus
The United States did not do so 8/
The US, sadly, is not alone in this regard 9/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…
In the past, @WHO has warned that travel bans are risky b/c give nations “a false impression of control” — a misperception that a ban would stop spread of disease
The experience of United States and others in this pandemic suggests WHO had a point 10/
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
By March 25, 136 nations had imposed travel restrictions in this pandemic
Few were carefully designed and targeted, or adopted as part of a comprehensive response to #COVID19 pandemic 11/
who.int/docs/default-s…
In 2005, the International Health Regulations were revised to stop broad, unscientific use of travel bans
The reason? To make us safer
In past, nations hid outbreaks out of concern other nations would impose unnecessarily tough trade & travel restrictions against them 12/
Now that system is broken.
We need stricter rules on travel bans or a system of outbreak detection that doesn't depend on nations self-reporting
Both goals require global leadership.
Leadership that a US President should provide 13/13
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