Thread by @hansilowang

Coming to you live around 9:25 a.m. on @NPRWeekend with @nprscottsimon to try to walk you through the twists and turns of the #2020Census saga
npr.org/2020/10/02/919…

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 2. In case you missed my chat with @nprscottsimon, here's a thread on what's going on with the #2020Census...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 3. Q: Where are we now with the end date for #2020Census counting?

A. 10/31 *for now* because of a court order by a federal judge in California. The order has been appealed to the 9th Circuit, which has set a hearing for 10/5. And Trump admin says it's ready to go to #SCOTUS...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 4. Q: What do four more weeks of counting mean for the #2020Census?

A: More time for door knocking by census workers who are trying to reach households in tribal areas, rural areas & other historically undercounted communities with a lot of distrust of the U.S. government...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 5. ...More door-knocking time for the #2020Census means there's a better chance of a more accurate count of people of color, immigrants, renters, young children under 5. That ultimately means a fairer distribution of power and money that's tied to the census over next 10 years.

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 6. Q: Why does the Trump admin want a shorter #2020Census schedule?

A: It says it doesn't want to miss 12/31 legal deadline for reporting new state population counts to President Trump - but top career officials at Census have said bc of COVID-19, they can't meet that deadline.

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 7. ...12/31 is important to President Trump's memo calling for unauthorized immigrants to be excluded from those state counts *despite* the 14th Amendment's requirement to include the "whole number of persons in each state." This would be an unprecedented change...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 8. ...to the census numbers that determine each state's share of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives -- and, in turn, the Electoral Colleges votes that are what determine who becomes the next U.S. president in 2024 and 2028 -- over the next 10 years...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 9. ...A key way to ensuring that Trump can attempt to make this unprecedented change to these numbers - even if he does not win re-election - is if the numbers are delivered to him by 12/31, which the Census Bureau now says is likely only possible if counting ends by 10/5...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 10. ...Since the 1st U.S. census in 1790, the numbers used to reapportion House seats have included both citizens & noncitizens, regardless of immigration status. Census experts tell me there's no legal way to exclude unauthorized immigrants from #2020Census apportionment count..

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 11. ...The reason why is that the #2020Census forms do *not* include a question about a person's immigration status (it also does *not* include the now-blocked citizenship question). That means to come up with a count of unauthorized immigrants...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 12. ...the Census Bureau would have to rely on incomplete government record and estimates based on statistical sampling. The Supreme Court ruled in 1999 that sampling cannot be used in numbers used for reapportioning House seats among the states.

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 13. Q: What could happen if the Trump administration decides to stop following the court order to keeping counting for the #2020Census?

A: The administration could be sanctioned or be held in contempt of court...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 14. ...I'm watching to see what happens after this 9th Circuit hearing of the Trump administration's appeal of the lower court order to keep counting...

@NPRWeekend @nprscottsimon 15. ...because this could escalate into a legal fight at the U.S. Supreme Court.