Thread by @stephen_tapp

Some timeless tips on how to speed-read the federal budget policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/marc…

(from the @IRPP achieves with @DavidDeault) #CdnEcon

Tip 1: To deconstruct the budget, first consider its construction:

Fundamentally, this is an exercise in assembling the evidence that best supports the government’s narrative, not necessarily to provide a comprehensive, objective view of the economy or the fiscal situation.

Tip 2: Prepare and reflect

There are lots of helpful resources to read in advance, like @PBO_DPB's pre-budget outlook pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/R…

And before the budget is released, reflect on your role and that of your organization. What’s your unique interest and perspective?

Tip 3: Numbers can tell you more than narratives

When you finally get the budget document, have a quick glance through summary texts like the press release or minister’s speech to identify the government’s main story lines.

Then stop reading and dive into the numbers.

First stop: The economic survey

Finance Canada’s survey of private sector forecasters forms the economic basis for the government’s budget projection.

The most important indicator is the level of nominal GDP — and specifically how it’s changed since the last time.

Second stop: New fiscal measures

Here's the story will largely be about the government's COVID response to-date, and how they plan to allocate additional resources.

Third stop: The budgetary balance table.

By making this your third stop, you'll better understand how the economy is shaping up and how much new programs will cost and when they will occur.

That makes it much easier to changes in the government’s bottom line since last time.

Tip 4: Budget numbers are forward-looking forecasts

Revenues and spending numbers are estimates of what the government is planning for.

Be humble about what we can know about the future, and mindful of this unavoidable uncertainty before making overly strong pronouncements.

Tip 5: See the big picture

Try not to get caught up in the minutiae of annual changes; rather, keep a long-term perspective.

Compare recent results and projections by looking back over history.

...Stay tuned for some excellent budget coverage in the coming days:

1) Free @IRPP webinar on Tuesday April 20, 12pm EST irpp.org/irpp-event/web… with @jenditchburn, @NpMish, @cbusby_eco @charlesbreton and @JasmineRezaee

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli

2) I'll be moderating a @CABE_Economics webinar with Alison McDermott of @FinanceCanada on April 20, 1pm ET.

CABE members can register for free here: cabe.ca/events/cabe-we…

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli

....Here's a link to the live Canadian Federal #Budget2021 presentation cpac.ca/en/direct/cpac…

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli

...You can find the detailed #Budget2021 documents here:

HTML: budget.gc.ca/2021/home-accu…

PDF:
budget.gc.ca/2021/pdf/budge…

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli

...What's your overall assessment of Canada's federal #Budget2021 (scored on a scale from 1 to 10)?

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli

...What do you think of Canada’s federal #Budget2021 proposal to introduce a new tax on luxury goods such as yachts, personal aircraft and expensive cars?

Details here: google.ca/amp/s/beta.ctv…

#CdnEcon #CdnPoli