Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
Making sense of the numbers so you don't have to! Senior Researcher. Applied Mathematician. PhD @Cambridge_Uni. Tweeting in my personal capacity

Apr 25, 2021, 8 tweets

Time for our weekly update of #COVID19 in SA🇿🇦

Sustained increase continues, albeit at a much slower rate this week 📈
NC and FS remain of concern ⚠️

• Cases +7% ⬆️
• Tests +7% ⬆️
• Test positivity rate 0% ➡️
• Hospitalisations +9% ⬆️
• Deaths -9% ⬇️

Thread to follow.. 📊

By province, NC and FS continue to increase further:
• NC incidence rate +60% or doubling every 10 days. Case incidence at 64% of its 2nd wave peak
• FS +23% week-on-week. Case incidence at 41% of its 2nd wave peak
• All other provinces stable with curves flat-lining this week

Rate of testing up +7% to ~29k tests per day over the past week. Nationally, the increase is testing has kept up with the increase in the rate of infections this week

The test positivity rate has remained stable this week, with the rate of increase in testing matching the rate at which cases are detected. Still below 5% due to the four populous provinces all still below 5%, but a number of smaller provinces are of concern...

By province, test positivity rates below 5% in GP, KZN, EC, WC and LP. However,
• NC approaching 15% 🚩
• FS and NW above 10% ⚠️
• MP approaching 10% 📈
Test positivity rate remains a leading indicator of areas of concern, an increase indicating higher community transmission

Hospital admissions continue its increase for the 2nd week, nationally up +9% compared to previous week
• Same 3 provinces noting an increase in this trend: FS (+30%), NC (+28%) and NW (+10%)
• GP also up +6%
• Slight increases in EC and LP too, but absolute numbers still low

Reported deaths decreased to 59 reported deaths on average per day this past week, -9% week-on-week.
Deaths reported still remain higher than expected due to data verification of deaths in some provinces.
FS and NC showing slight but noticeable increases in deaths in hospitals.

That's all for this week's update. Hope you find the thread useful!
As always, any comments, feedback, and suggestions most welcome.
Remain vigilant and stay safe 🙏

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