I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South Africa🇿🇦 (that hiatus didn't last long) 😅
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] 🧵 1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SA🇿🇦 shown below:

Thread.. 🧵
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa 🇿🇦

Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :

1/n There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa 🇿🇦

This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves

[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa 🇿🇦

TL;DR :
- Cases declining 📉
- Test % positivity declining 📉
- Hospitalisations peaked 🙌
- Deaths low and slowing 🤞

Thread 🧵.. 1/6 With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng🇿🇦 having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now 📉

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak 👍

2/6

[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng🇿🇦

Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng🇿🇦, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections

Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...

Thread 🧵 ../6 3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 📈

Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak 🏔️

Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again 🧐

2/6

[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng 🇿🇦

Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa 🇿🇦

A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...

Thread 🧵 ../n Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 ⬆️

Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak 🏔️

Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days 📈

2/n

[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG 🇿🇦

First, a summary of current indicators:

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1468672942527717386?s=20

1/n Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng 🇿🇦

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1468677307070042114?s=20

2/6

“Knowledge is power, but it is much more powerful when it is shared.”

As part of @Wikimedia's @Wikipedia #WikipediaByUs campaign we celebrate access to knowledge.

Why is knowledge sharing important especially in a time of a pandemic? How can we counter misinformation? Thread 🧵 Early on in the #COVID19 pandemic there was much fear, uncertainty, and misinformation. There still is!

As we gather more data, new research, more knowledge, our understanding improves and we can counter those uncertainties.

But that knowledge needs to be accessible too...

[Thread] Fellow Gautengers,

The #3rdWave of #COVID19 in #Gauteng has been devastating😩

There are signs of hope, light at the end of the dark tunnel💡
Cases surpassed an inflection point and heading towards/possibly at a peak🗻

But we must remain vigilant🧐

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid Over past 7 days, > 78k #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng, an avg of 11,266 per day, and up 6% week-on-week 📈

Case incidence rate at 73 new cases per 100k per day - highest infection rate seen by any province at any stage since the start of the pandemic ⚠️

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid

It's turning!! 🤞🤞

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #Gauteng #3rdWave #COVID19SA This graph shows a 7-day rolling average, so what we are seeing is not the "weekend effect" as the 7-day average takes that into account. This dip gives some hope!
However, it's too early to say if Gauteng has actually peaked - need to wait a few more days to confirm that..

[Thread] Hospitals in Gauteng are full! ⚠️

Doctors, nurses, and HCWs didn't ask for this and don't need our thanks; they need our action and assistance! 🙏

If the data isn't enough, here are some comments that I've read recently from doctors on the ground 👇

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1406301737003126786

https://twitter.com/hamzahbava/status/1405213975315456003?s=20

[Thread] Dear fellow Gautengers

A plea to take extra precaution🙏

The 3rd wave of hospitalisations is here! #COVID19 numbers are about to exceed previous peaks. We're entering uncharted territory. How high we go is still up to us,and our collective behaviour!
#Rid1TweetsonCovid Gauteng is currently the epicentre of South Africa's 3rd wave, and the most populous province in SA 🇿🇦

There have been over 35000 new cases reported in Gauteng over the past 7 days, i.e. an average of over 5000 per day, up 88% compared to the previous week 📈

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid

15 June 2021: #COVID19 in South Africa🇿🇦

8,436 new cases reported in South Africa today (expect much more tomorrow), and over 57k cases over past 7 days 📈

3rd wave in SA now surging, spurred on by a concerning spike in Gauteng ⚠️

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #FamilyMeeting #ThirdWave Update: #COVID19 in Gauteng

GP currently epicentre of SA's 3rd wave. Over 35k cases reported in GP over past 7 days, 63% of total, and up 88% week-on-week 🚩

Over 4,400 patients currently in hospitals in GP alone, and too many deaths now 😢

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #FamilyMeeting

Provincial update #COVID19 in South Africa 🇿🇦

Here's a look at the key metrics of case incidence and test positivity rate per province in South Africa 📊

Quite a lot going on between the provinces, so I'll make this a thread 👇 Let's start with good news!

Northern Cape and Free State showing promising signs of a decline. Both are still at very high case incidence rates,so certainly not out of the woods yet 📉

NC case incidence rose up to 1.5 times previous peak.
FS went up to 90% of 2nd wave's peak 🌄

Time for our weekly update of #COVID19 in SA🇿🇦

Sustained increase continues, albeit at a much slower rate this week 📈
NC and FS remain of concern ⚠️

• Cases +7% ⬆️
• Tests +7% ⬆️
• Test positivity rate 0% ➡️
• Hospitalisations +9% ⬆️
• Deaths -9% ⬇️

Thread to follow.. 📊 By province, NC and FS continue to increase further:
• NC incidence rate +60% or doubling every 10 days. Case incidence at 64% of its 2nd wave peak
• FS +23% week-on-week. Case incidence at 41% of its 2nd wave peak
• All other provinces stable with curves flat-lining this week

Time for our Sunday update of #COVID19 in SA🇿🇦

Clear signs of an "Easter wave" (on cue), driven by a resurgence in 3 of the smaller provinces: NC, FS and NW ⚠️📈

• Cases +35% ⬆️
• Tests +19% ⬆️
• Test positivity rate +14% ⬆️
• Hospitalisations +2% ⬆️
• Deaths +51% ⬆️ Confirmed #COVID19 cases up in all 9 provinces this week, but 3 are of particular concern atm:
• NC +104% and incidence rate at 40% of its 2nd wave peak = 3rd wave/resurgence of 2nd wave
• FS +63% and incidence rate now at 33% of its 2nd wave peak = start of 3rd wave
• NW +57%

Test positivity rate: explainer and analysis

Test positivity in SA🇿🇦 has decreased this past week coming down from record highs. This is good news (we'll hold onto any good news), but not an indication that we are past the worst yet since cases are still high... Thread 👇 1/n Test positivity is useful in analysing if any increase or decrease in confirmed cases is real. In 🇿🇦 test positivity has been high throughout the pandemic, so we cannot just look at case numbers alone but need to consider cases and tests or test positivity in combination... 2/n