Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
Apr 25, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Time for our weekly update of #COVID19 in SA🇿🇦

Sustained increase continues, albeit at a much slower rate this week 📈
NC and FS remain of concern ⚠️

• Cases +7% ⬆️
• Tests +7% ⬆️
• Test positivity rate 0% ➡️
• Hospitalisations +9% ⬆️
• Deaths -9% ⬇️

Thread to follow.. 📊
By province, NC and FS continue to increase further:
• NC incidence rate +60% or doubling every 10 days. Case incidence at 64% of its 2nd wave peak
• FS +23% week-on-week. Case incidence at 41% of its 2nd wave peak
• All other provinces stable with curves flat-lining this week
Rate of testing up +7% to ~29k tests per day over the past week. Nationally, the increase is testing has kept up with the increase in the rate of infections this week
The test positivity rate has remained stable this week, with the rate of increase in testing matching the rate at which cases are detected. Still below 5% due to the four populous provinces all still below 5%, but a number of smaller provinces are of concern...
By province, test positivity rates below 5% in GP, KZN, EC, WC and LP. However,
• NC approaching 15% 🚩
• FS and NW above 10% ⚠️
• MP approaching 10% 📈
Test positivity rate remains a leading indicator of areas of concern, an increase indicating higher community transmission
Hospital admissions continue its increase for the 2nd week, nationally up +9% compared to previous week
• Same 3 provinces noting an increase in this trend: FS (+30%), NC (+28%) and NW (+10%)
• GP also up +6%
• Slight increases in EC and LP too, but absolute numbers still low
Reported deaths decreased to 59 reported deaths on average per day this past week, -9% week-on-week.
Deaths reported still remain higher than expected due to data verification of deaths in some provinces.
FS and NC showing slight but noticeable increases in deaths in hospitals.
That's all for this week's update. Hope you find the thread useful!
As always, any comments, feedback, and suggestions most welcome.
Remain vigilant and stay safe 🙏

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More from @rid1tweets

Aug 1, 2022
I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South Africa🇿🇦 (that hiatus didn't last long) 😅
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] 🧵
1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SA🇿🇦 shown below:
2. Testing has declined substantially, and so case numbers and even test % positivity have become unreliable as a true reflection of actual #COVID19 infection rates.
An ONS-style randomised infection survey as done in the UK🇬🇧 would be useful, but we don't have such here in SA🇿🇦
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14, 2022
Thread.. 🧵
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa 🇿🇦

Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :

1/n
There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa 🇿🇦

This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves
Reporting of #COVID19 deaths in South Africa🇿🇦 are laggy and under-estimated. Since the Omicron BA.1 wave, NDoH has been conducting audit exercises and reporting backlogs but unfortunately provide no context as to when those deaths actually occurred nor make that data available🤷‍♂️
Read 11 tweets
May 25, 2022
[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa 🇿🇦

TL;DR :
- Cases declining 📉
- Test % positivity declining 📉
- Hospitalisations peaked 🙌
- Deaths low and slowing 🤞

Thread 🧵.. 1/6
With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng🇿🇦 having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now 📉

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak 👍

2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 21 May = 19.6% 📉

Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections 👍

3/6
Read 6 tweets
May 12, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng🇿🇦

Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng🇿🇦, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections

Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...

Thread 🧵 ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 📈

Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak 🏔️

Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again 🧐

2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 7 May = 26.2% 🚩

Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening 🤞

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng 🇿🇦

Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa 🇿🇦

A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...

Thread 🧵 ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 ⬆️

Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak 🏔️

Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days 📈

2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% 🚩

Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected 🧐

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG 🇿🇦

First, a summary of current indicators:


1/n
Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng 🇿🇦



2/6
Early indications that #COVID19 cases in Gauteng may have passed an inflection point.

What is an inflection point:


3/6
Read 6 tweets

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