Amid all the gloom & doom about #BTC, let's do some in depth TA!
4-year cycle broken? V-shaped rebound? When? Seen correction low?
TLDR:
1 BTC price is tracking past cycles'
2 Price dump expected today
3 There could be a lengthening of this cycle
4 Peak price: $260K-$360K
1/ #BTC's recent price action is puzzling as it doesn't seem to follow the previous cycles'.
I was perplexed until I zoomed out & looked closely at the monthly BLX log chart to find my bearings.
BTC's price action is tracking its previous cycles'! BTC's 4-year cycle is intact.
2a/ I'm tracking the @HalvingTracker charts, but I've been looking at the wrong portions of the charts of previous cycles (🔵).
Using the monthly BLX log chart, I found out where #BTC is at (🔴) and where it is supposed to be in previous cycles and it all makes sense!
2b/ #BTC is tracking the monthly price action of the 2013 bull phase closely.
However, in terms of price action from the no. of days after the halving, #BTC is trading similar to that on 372 days after the halving in 2017, while it's currently at 371 days after the halving.
2/c Thus, in terms of price action in this cycle, #BTC is off by only 1 day from that in 2017!
A big dump is expected to happen today exactly as it has played out regardless of Elon's tweet.
2d/ Could #BTC's price go lower from here?
If it behaves like that in the 2017 cycle, the dump is over & price will begin its V-shaped rebound.
If it follows the 2013 bull phase, #BTC will have a lower low next month, but rebound to close out with a monthly green candle.
3/ From the same period today in the last 2 cycles, it took #BTC 5 months to reach its respective peaks in those cycles.
If everything plays out as expected, that will put #BTC's current cycle peak in October 2021 rather than September 2021.
👀
4a/ What is the projected peak #BTC price in this cycle?
Using Fib Extensions, #BTC topped put between 3.618 Fib and 4.618 Fib in the last 2 cycles. If this plays out in this cycle, #BTC's top price is ~$260K.
4b/ For reference, connecting the 2 previous #BTC's cycle peaks with a trend line, BTC peak price is determined to be:
9/21 Peak: $260K
10/21 Peak: $280K
4c/ Assuming the trend angle for each bull phase move is 3° less in each succeeding cycle, the #BTC peak price is determined to be:
9/21 Peak: $260K
10/21 Peak: $360K
If the trend angle is an average between the last 2 cycles', #BTC's peak price is much higher!
Will update.
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