John Harrison Profile picture
⚽️📊🧤 Head of Data Science @goalkeeper_com - University of Cambridge Astronomy PhD graduate - Data featured in @TheAthleticFC & @SkySportsPL

May 18, 2021, 8 tweets

What a save from #DeGea

Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment

It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!

Not many GKs could make such a good decision

#MUFC #MUNFUL

The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish

The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!

#DeGea’s ability to not panic & rush out during long range 1v1s has been a strength of his for many years & I have mentioned it in many of my previous tweets.

If you are interested in the statistically optimum strategy a GK can employ during a 1v1 situation see the thread below!

For the people asking why it worked for #DeGea but not #Henderson:

1. While the situations are very similar initially, & #Henderson does initially make a good & correct decision to wait, once #Salah takes the extra touch #Henderson needs to engage as you cannot wait forever!

2. #Salah is a very good striker & backed his touch to be good enough that it wouldn’t allowed #Henderson to close him down much so #Salah didn’t take the shot early while the Fulham striker took the shot early as more often than not that is what non-elite strikers will do.

This statistically derived diagram is a good rule of thumb for GKs if the striker is clear through 1v1 you should only engage (if you want to statistically maximise your chances of making the save) when they take a touch which takes them inside the grey region, otherwise wait!

For those saying it was a simple save & every #PremierLeague GK would easily make it:

That is only true if they made the initial decision to hold deep!

See my thread below about #Ederson, a top class PL GK, who regularly struggles to make the right decision in this situations!

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