⚽️📊🧤Head of Data Science @goalkeeper_com - University of Cambridge Astronomy PhD graduate - Data featured in @TheAthleticFC & @SkySportsPL
Apr 9 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Has #Ederson turned a corner regarding his issues with long range 1v1s?
Yesterday he positioned himself perfectly inside his 6yrd box during this long range 1v1 thus allowing his defender to pressure the ball while maximising the finish difficulty for the striker!
#Ederson highlighted how waiting deep is not a passive strategy!
As GKs should only wait deep until the CF gets close enough that the GK will not have enough reaction time to make a save, which is what #Ederson did as he rushed & smothered once the CF was within 14yrd of goal!
#Ward has struggled in all areas 😞
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds)
Aug 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
A GK’s handling ability is vital & often under analysed!
Here #DeGea showed how handling can determine a game’s outcome when he parried a 49mph central shot into danger & the rebound was scored!
xRebound xG = 0.09
Actual Rebound xG = 0.47
xG added due to poor handling = 0.38
My handling model uses historic shot data to gauge how often certain shots should be expected to be caught, parried away from danger, & parried into danger in combination with a none shot xG model which assesses how likely rebounds are to be scored based on the parry location
How many goals were the big 6 GKs worth vs the avg #PL GK?
#Alisson was worth ~19 goals! What more does a GK have to do to get #POTY!
#DeGea was the best shot stopper but his weak shot prevention & distribution meant he was only worth ~3 goals! #Ederson was the best distributer & his shot preventing was class but his below average shot stopping means his value is far below #Alisson’s!
#Ramsdale’s performances at the end of the season were average but his incredible start means he ended the year with great numbers!
His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
My model finds that if #DeGea had engaged the 1st touch the chance would’ve been 0.64 ExG because even though the 1v1 is quite far from goal engaging in that location would make the GK very vulnerable to the chip, sidefoot finish, and being rounded.
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!
He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!
It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post!
I’ve seen the save described on Twitter as both the save of the season & poor positioning followed by a slow recovery!
As usual the truth is between the two & I should make it clear here that saving a 50/50 shot is a lot closer to the save of the season than poor GKing!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson of #LFC has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses & #Alisson has played 90 fewer minutes!
This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Oct 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
I’ve seen this describe as a wonder save but it’s a decision making error followed by a good recovery
My 1v1 model predicts this to be scored 2% of the time if the GK holds deep while if the GK rushes, like #Mendy, it is scored 64% of the time
He made it way harder for himself!
I think #Mendy is a top GK by the way & he’s made many great saves this season but just because a GK is good doesn’t mean we should praise them regardless of how good their goalkeeping actually is!
It’s unbelievable awareness to spot the run, then exceptional technique to pick it out!
Being able to set up 2 v 3 situations from the GK is so useful
This pass was certainly the standout moment for me but importantly it was not an isolated incident at all
Oct 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Ah I feel for #Martinez, shuffling around on his line pre shot & ending up on the left side of his goal cost him those extra inches that would’ve allowed him to parry the ball away from danger!
At the same time it was potentially the movement that put PEM off so it’s a hard one!
Obviously it was a top top penalty save but you could instantly tell by #Martinez’s reaction that he was gutted with the fact he didn’t manage to push it out wide.
I don’t think #Martinez should be too harsh on himself thought as I think it was just smart timing from Auba
Oct 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
What a forced out of position 1v1 save from #Martinez!
His foot speed to get across is excellent & his decision to dive left pre-shot to get his body in-line with the ball is also class!
Definition: A forced out of position 1v1 is a 1v1 which occurs either after a rebound, ricochet, or cross which results in a 1v1 situation where the GK could not possibly be inline with the ball as the situation starts & needs to reposition quickly to make the save
Oct 21, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
I don’t often post videos of myself playing but given I dropped a 15 save MotM performance for @oldthorntonians last weekend I thought it would be interesting to post my favourite 4 & run a poll to see which save people think is the best!
I particularly enjoyed my pulsing feet & constant little readjustments pre save & use of the collapse dive to make this save. I also enjoyed how I manipulated the ball & guided it out for a corner rather than putting it back into danger.
Sep 30, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
This is my favourite #DeGea#UCL save from yesterday
Because it didn’t require athleticism or reflexes it required calmness & good decision making!
38% of the time a 1v1 in that position results in a goal but after DDGs decision to rush back to his line & wait this falls to 7%! #DeGea showed you don’t need to start deep to get into such a position, he was over 12yrd out & was ready to sweep if he had to but because he made the decision to drop & react so quickly & confidently he managed to use his wonderful fast footwork to get back in time.