Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DeGea

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De Gea gestern mit guten Beispiel dafür, wieso eine hohe Position noch lange keine hohe Reichweite sein muss. Da er am Fünfer steht und relativ lange dort bleibt ehe er sich absetzt, hat er hier ein vermeidbares Gegentor kassiert.

#Keeperanalyse #VILMUN #MUFC #UELfinal
Durch ein früheres Absetzen nach hinten hätte er sich mehr Reaktionszeit verschaffen können und den Ball vermutlich halten können. So steht #DeGea im Nirgendwo und kann weder den Raum verteidigen, noch Druck auf den Schützen ausüben.

Grundsätzlich bin ich bei Szenen aus dem Spiel heraus ein Fan von mutig positionierten Keepern. Es ist sogar unabdingbar, dass sie höher stehen und den Raum hinter der Abwehrkette proaktiv sichern.
Read 5 tweets
What a save from #DeGea

Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment

It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!

Not many GKs could make such a good decision

The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
Read 8 tweets
#PremierLeague Shotstopping Performance Graphic:

#Ederson #Areola #Martinez & #Sanchez have been class 🔥

#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄

Despite criticism #Ramsdale #Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
Explanation of ExSaves:

ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
...Therefore as a rough example a shot from 40yrds at a tight angle that goes down the middle of goal with all the teams defenders behind the ball may have an ExSave of 99% whereas a central 1v1 from 10yrds fired into the bottom corner may have an ExSave of 10%.
Read 4 tweets

#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!

He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!

That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!
Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.

I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!

#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!

So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)
Read 12 tweets
#Henderson’s cross claiming has been exceptional in his first 5 #PremierLeague appearances

#Henderson boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average #PL GK!

His claiming is preventing #ManchesterUnited conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!

For comparison, #DeGea cross claiming numbers this year are:

Chances Prevented = 0.81
(Only 41% of DH)

ExG Prevented = 0.15
(Only 35% of DH)

Average Claim Distance = 4.5yrd (Only 78% of DH)

Claim Success = 95%
(95% of DH)

Catch Fraction = 58%
(104% of DH)

For more information on the metrics I quote in the graphics above please see this thread, it explains how I calculate which cross claims prevent chances & which don’t & how I assign ExG values to each claim & why it’s important to look deeper than “total high balls claimed”!
Read 6 tweets

Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?

Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year! Image
Claiming 19/20:

#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

Key points

• Attempts to claim infrequently

• Mostly successful when he does attempt to claim

#MUFC Image
Claiming 20/21:

So far #DeGea has prevented 0.74 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

#DeGea has performed in a very similar manner against crosses this year with his willingness to claim & his success when doing so remaining roughly the same.

#MUFC Image
Read 7 tweets
#DeGea’s ability to stop close range 1v1s has dropped off greatly recently:


He often chooses the optimum 1v1 technique he just gets the execution wrong!

Last night he failed to ground his foot & thus the ball squirmed under him

It’s these fine margins which stop #DeGea replicating his form of 17/18.

Again with the #Neymar goal he does the right thing trying to use the block but he drops into it too far from #Neymar he needs to get closer to him & fill more of the goal area if he wants to make the save. Image
The 3rd goal is on #Maguire.

#DeGea again gets the decision right to try to block but this time he also nails the execution & gives the PSG player nothing to hit.

But as #Maguire does not trust #DeGea he drops back to the line rather than marking #Neymar giving him a tap in. Image
Read 5 tweets
JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning

He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!

If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
Read 4 tweets
Last year #Guaita only saved 36% of the close range 1v1s he faced (only #Kepa & #DeGea were lower)

This is because he rarely forms a premeditated barrier before the shot is struck so gives himself no chance of making the save!

This weakness was exposed again tonight.

When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”

As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
Read 8 tweets

How important is a goalkeeper’s ability to prevent shots?

Is it of comparable importance to shot stopping ability?

In this thread I will investigate these questions & outline my ExG prevented model using #Alisson as an example.

#PremierLeague #LFC #GKUnion #EPL
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:

Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal

Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate

Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
Read 28 tweets

Over the past year has Dean #Henderson staked a realistic claim to be #ManchesterUnited’s number 1 #Goalkeeper ahead of David #DeGea?

I will mainly investigate an area of GKing that receives little statistical analysis:

Cross Claiming & Sweeping

#MUFC #GKUnion
Firstly before that, I think it is well known that #Henderson had an outstanding shot stopping season while #DeGea didn’t.

Here are the numbers:

#Henderson Save%-ExSave +5.88%
#DeGea Save%-ExSave% +0.78%

2 important conclusions should be drawn from these numbers...

1. #DeGea did not have a below avg season, yes he make shot stopping mistakes but he made enough worldy saves to out weigh the mistakes.

2. #DeGea has only once (17/18) had a better shot stopping season in his career (according to PSExG) than #Henderson had this year.

Read 7 tweets
🧤 Decent piece by @JKFootb4ll & @BTLvid, but there are a few comments I want to make. #MUFC #PremierLeague

[Long thread]
-What often gets lost in the debate between David #DeGea & Dean #Henderson is the fact that the latter only has one full season of first division playing experience under his belt.
Of course, it was a fantastic season - an argument could be made that #Henderson is this #PremierLeague season's top goalkeeper. But nonetheless, it's still one season, and there's no guarantee that these performances will carry over to #MUFC.
Read 15 tweets

Dean #Henderson vs David #DeGea
#PremierLeague Shotstopping 19/20

As requested I will compare the shot stopping performances of the two potential #ManchesterUnited number 1’s.

There will be statistics & 1v1 plots!


#MUFC #GKAnalysis #GKUnion
Firstly let’s look at post shot expected goals conceded.

@StatsBomb’s PSExG model takes the position of the shot, the position of the defenders, the speed of the shot & the placement of the shot into account in order to calculate whether an Avg GK would save it.
Using this model #DeGea has played almost exactly to the level of an average #PremierLeague goalkeeper & has conceded -0.2 goals more than expected.

#Henderson on the other hand has saved #SheffieldUnited +6.5 more goals than an avg GK would be expected to!
Read 15 tweets
#Ronaldo igbo rere
This #Ronaldo is something else .. makes mess of my Goal keeper David #DeGea
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Read 3 tweets

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