1/9 Today #Bitcoin saw its first $10k daily candle
The problem: it was to the downside 📉😅
A 🧵 using some on-chain data to have a look at what happened, assess the damage & a possible outlook 🤕
2/9 Today's on-chain movements were similar to those of last week:
1) Most of the coins moving were relatively young 👶
2) Short-term holders are now at net unrealized loss levels not seen since the March 2020 market crash 😱
3) ..and appear to be capitulating those losses 🪦
3/9 The young coins that were likely capitulating were a possible sign of inexperienced market participants (e.g. retail) capitulating
Today we also saw a huge uptick in #Bitcoin dominance: altcoins were bleeding (much) harder
Another possible sign of retail capitulation..? 👀
4/9 If we zoom in on the last 2 weeks (on a 10-min resolution), we see that over the last week, there were some huge net exchange inflows 🐳
During today's dip, there also were a few huge net outflows - a possible sign that a big entity is shopping at a discount 💸
5/9 Today's $10k daily candle was breathtaking to experience 😨
Price bounced back +30% from its low & appears to be forming a beautiful capitulation wick 🌹
Can today's candle even close above its 200-day moving average? ...and who is doing that heavy buying on Coinbase? 👀
6/9 As you would expect on such a bloody Tuesday, a lot of longs were liquidated 🪦
Today's liquidations weren't more extreme than those in Feb-Apr. However, these didn't come after reaching a new all-time high - but during what appeared to be a capitulation event! 😯
7/9 Earlier today I tweeted that I was worried about the positive funding rate ()
This is no longer the case. Not only did leveraged longs get flushed out - the market is now net short 👀
There is now a 🐳 incentive to pump the price & liquidate shorts
8/9 The big question: is this the end of the bull market..? 🤔
We have a @glassnode, but not a crystal ball 🤷♂️
I don't think this was it. Like I tweeted earlier today (), I would expect more HODLers selling, e.g. moving RHODL & Reserve Risk into the red
9/9 If this indeed was not end of the bull market, it would mean that we have just experienced the largest bull market drawdown since 2013 💪
These are extremely volatile times - stay safe out there (e.g., don't use leverage but just buy dips via spot or DCA)! ✌️
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