1/11 New @BitcoinMagazine article: Valuing #Bitcoin based on HODLer behavior

It introduces 2 new on-⛓️ metrics:
- Market-Value-to-Long-term-holder Value (MVLV)
- Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV)

Click 👇 for a summary 🧵 or read the full article: bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/valuin… 2/11 Money can be defined as "the most salable good to transfer value across space and time"

#Bitcoin can be seamlessly transferred across both space and time thanks to its digital nature and 21-million maximum supply

1/5 The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Bands are a new valuation model that iterates upon one of the most popular on-chain metrics in #Bitcoin

Learn how it works by checking out the short 🧵 below or reading the full article at @BitcoinMagazine : bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/market… 2/5 The first concept to grasp is that of Realized Value (RV), introduced by @nic__carter & @khannib in 2018

RV is the total value of all circulating coins at the last time they moved on-chain, therefore representing the estimated cost-base of all existing #bitcoin

1/17 Cycling On-Chain #3: Squeezed Supply, Shorts and Bitcoin Lemonade 🍋

Read all about #bitcoin lemonade that is based on squeezing supply, shorts & weak hands in this summary 🧵

...or in more detail in the original article on @BitcoinMagazine itself: bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoi… 2/17 Last year, @Glassnode learned that when an Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) is >155 days old, its has a relatively low probability of being spent

Based on this, they created Short-Term Holder (STH) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply metrics

1/22 This 2nd edition of @BitcoinMagazine Cycling On-Chain, "#Bitcoin Enters Geopolitics", focuses on:

1) The impact of China's crackdown 🇨🇳

2) Metrics for El Salvador's adoption 🇸🇻

This 🧵 summarizes it; but read the article for in-depth explanations:

bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoi… 2/22 Since mid-April, China came down hard on #Bitcoin, banning its institutions to offer #bitcoin services, censoring related search results and shutting down mining operations in recent weeks

Hash rate dropped ~50%, to levels not seen since briefly after last year's halving 🤕

1/25 @BitcoinMagazine just posted the first edition of a new monthly series titled 'Cycling On-Chain', in which on-chain and price-related data are used to estimate where in #Bitcoin's market cycle we are

I'll summarize the article in this 🧵

bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoi… 2/25 Just like the periods after the 2012 and 2016 halvings, the 2020 #Bitcoin halving created a supply shock that triggered an exponential price increase

However, compared to the previous one, this cycle got heated much faster 🥵

1/7 Just published an article at @BitcoinMagazine that uses on-chain data visualizations to explain how #Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism works & how it relates to hash rate, block intervals, fees & the mempool

This 🧵 summarizes the article 👇

bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitc… 2/7 #Bitcoin reaches its 21 million hard cap by starting with a 50 BTC block subsidy and halving that each 210k blocks, until the block subsidy falls away after 33 halvings

#Bitcoin needs block intervals of ~10 min to ensure these halvings are spread out over ~4 years. But why?

1/9 Today #Bitcoin saw its first $10k daily candle

The problem: it was to the downside 📉😅

A 🧵 using some on-chain data to have a look at what happened, assess the damage & a possible outlook 🤕 2/9 Today's on-chain movements were similar to those of last week:

1) Most of the coins moving were relatively young 👶

2) Short-term holders are now at net unrealized loss levels not seen since the March 2020 market crash 😱

3) ..and appear to be capitulating those losses 🪦

1/9 About 9 hours ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting #Bitcoin for payments out of environmental concerns, crashing price by -$8.7k (-16%) to just below $46k

Something smells fishy here though.. 🐟

A 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1392602041025843203

2/9 First, there's the inconsistency:
- On April 22nd, Elon agreed with Jack that #Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy
- On May 11th, his latest tweet before this was a poll where he asked if Tesla should accept $DOGE as a payment option; which is also a Proof-of-Work coin

1/6 During yesterday's mini-dip, I saw unrest in my feed & some people were pinging me if I was still bullish on #Bitcoin

To me this was nothing but another shake-out of weak hands and leverage, while nothing changed regarding the big picture 🤷‍♂️

A short 🧵 on (not) getting rekt 2/6 So, what happened?

Simple: as soon as #Bitcoin set a new local high and dipped a bit, there was a steep uptick in people aping in long on leverage again 🦍

As always, this is a recipe for getting rekt - which is exactly what happened a few hours later 🤦

1/10 Recently, I became convinced that the #bitcoin price simply went up too fast and this consolidation is functioning as a re-accumulation phase

IMO the January local top was the turnaround point in the market structure 🏔️

I'll elaborate in this 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️ 2/10 During the January local top, the #bitcoin price went up FAST 🥵

Compared to 2017, this run-up happened:
1) at an earlier post-halving date
2) at a faster acceleration, and
3) to a higher degree (reached a 🌡️ of 7 - which in 2017 it only reached during the blow-off top)

1/7 Short 🧵 on the recent hash rate drop in #Bitcoin, its recovery and the impact of that on several on-chain metrics ⛓️

On April 16th, hash rate on #Bitcoin had a steep decline related to to a power outage in China, to which it is now recovering - it even approaches new ATH's 2/7 As a result of the hash rate drop, block interval times increased, which means that blocks were temporarily being produced at a (much) slower pace than the normal 10 blocks/min

As miners came back online & mining difficulty adjusted downwards, blocks are now coming in fast

Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis meta-thread 🧵

Since January 2021, I am doing a market analysis at the start of each month, assessing on-chain & other valuation models 📈

This meta-thread links them together for future reference 🔗

January 2021:

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1345327702212046849

Februari 2021:

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1356339471357276161

1/27 1st day of the month.. #Bitcoin market analysis time! 🥳

This edition, I'll look at 3 questions:
- Why did we dip (again)?
- Is there still demand?
- Is there still room for growth?

A relatively long 🧵 this time, but I think you may just like it 🤫 2/27 Alright, lets first just look at the price chart

#bitcoin started the month strong, rallying to a new ATH at ~$64.9k, but then dropped to ~$47.0k (-27.56%), where it found a lot of confluence for support (e.g., Fibonacci, UTXO realized price, whale inflows, NVT Price)

1/20 @BitcoinMagazine just posted my article "An Ode And Forthcoming Obituary To #Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle"

bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/an-obi…

The article reflects on the beauty of the 4-year cycle 🌹 - as well as on its inevitable demise 🪦

In this 🧵, I'll summarize the key points 👇 2/20 The article starts with a primer on #Bitcoin's supply issuance schedule

Summary:
- The # of newly mined coins (block subsidy) halves every ~4 years
- As a result, its inflation rate declines over time ('disinflation')
- As a result, it has a 21 million #BTC hard cap

1/6 Since last Sunday, the #bitcoin price went from >$60k to <$50k in a dip that scared some (newer) market participants

Who were selling here, and are they done selling? 🐳

A small 🧵 using @whale_map data to zoom in on the price action of this last week 2/6 The market turnaround started last Sunday (April 18th), when price broke through $60k with increased volume

As can be seen in this 🐳 outflows chart, a lot of #bitcoin moved that day that was bought by whales on August 3rd, 2020 for ~$11.2k

Looks like (>400%) profit taking

1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin Market Analysis 📈

In this 🧵, I'll take an in-depth look at several on-chain metrics to explore where we are in the cycle, what market players are currently (not) selling, how this impacts the current market supply and speculate where we might be heading 2/18 I'll start by looking at the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) to get a feel for how hot current prices are in the context of its 4-year cycle

In short; prices have heated up quickly, but the 🌡️ has consolidated just below the BPT6 Band - just like we saw in 2017

1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis 📈

This month, I'll share my thoughts on:
1. Where are we in the cycle?
2. Has the correction bottomed?
3. When next run-up?

🧵 with BPT, MVRV, Reserve Risk, Puell Multiple, SOPR, exchange balances, miner activity, reflexivity & more 👇 2/18 Based on the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) per cycle charts, we are still early in the # of post-halving days and the maximum price 🌡️ that was reached

If you correct the BPT for M2 inflation; even more so

Want more BPT? Check out this thread:

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1356218323835506690

1/8 Are you also excited about #Bitcoin's future? 🔥

Seven bullish #Bitcoin narratives for 2021:
1) Supply shortage ⚖️
2) Stimulus checks 💰
3) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model 📈
4) Chasing gold 🥇
5) Bitcoin ETF 🕴️
6) Taproot 🌱
7) Lightning ⚡️

Thread 👇 2/8 Due to institutional FOMO, an unprecedented # of #Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges in 2020, exacerbating the halving-induced supply shortage

Due to #Bitcoin's inelastic supply, a supply shortage means a greater chance at 🚀 with new demand 🍾

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1344031257974501376?s=20

1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.

As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! 🌡️

All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread 👇 2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.

Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? 🤷‍♂️

1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:

If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 👀

Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread 👇 2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?

A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. 🌡️

More in this thread & article:

https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1338942312437706756?s=20

1/16 Interesting analysis by @btconometrics 🔥

TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.

Thread with summary & some thoughts 👇

https://twitter.com/btconometrics/status/1340646333279924229

2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).