1/9 Today #Bitcoin saw its first $10k daily candle
The problem: it was to the downside ππ
A 𧡠using some on-chain data to have a look at what happened, assess the damage & a possible outlook π€
The problem: it was to the downside ππ
A 𧡠using some on-chain data to have a look at what happened, assess the damage & a possible outlook π€
2/9 Today's on-chain movements were similar to those of last week:
1) Most of the coins moving were relatively young πΆ
2) Short-term holders are now at net unrealized loss levels not seen since the March 2020 market crash π±
3) ..and appear to be capitulating those losses πͺ¦
1) Most of the coins moving were relatively young πΆ
2) Short-term holders are now at net unrealized loss levels not seen since the March 2020 market crash π±
3) ..and appear to be capitulating those losses πͺ¦
3/9 The young coins that were likely capitulating were a possible sign of inexperienced market participants (e.g. retail) capitulating
Today we also saw a huge uptick in #Bitcoin dominance: altcoins were bleeding (much) harder
Another possible sign of retail capitulation..? π
Today we also saw a huge uptick in #Bitcoin dominance: altcoins were bleeding (much) harder
Another possible sign of retail capitulation..? π
4/9 If we zoom in on the last 2 weeks (on a 10-min resolution), we see that over the last week, there were some huge net exchange inflows π³
During today's dip, there also were a few huge net outflows - a possible sign that a big entity is shopping at a discount πΈ
During today's dip, there also were a few huge net outflows - a possible sign that a big entity is shopping at a discount πΈ
5/9 Today's $10k daily candle was breathtaking to experience π¨
Price bounced back +30% from its low & appears to be forming a beautiful capitulation wick πΉ
Can today's candle even close above its 200-day moving average? ...and who is doing that heavy buying on Coinbase? π
Price bounced back +30% from its low & appears to be forming a beautiful capitulation wick πΉ
Can today's candle even close above its 200-day moving average? ...and who is doing that heavy buying on Coinbase? π
6/9 As you would expect on such a bloody Tuesday, a lot of longs were liquidated πͺ¦
Today's liquidations weren't more extreme than those in Feb-Apr. However, these didn't come after reaching a new all-time high - but during what appeared to be a capitulation event! π―
Today's liquidations weren't more extreme than those in Feb-Apr. However, these didn't come after reaching a new all-time high - but during what appeared to be a capitulation event! π―
7/9 Earlier today I tweeted that I was worried about the positive funding rate (
This is no longer the case. Not only did leveraged longs get flushed out - the market is now net short π
There is now a π³ incentive to pump the price & liquidate shorts
https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1394907478329110528?s=20)
This is no longer the case. Not only did leveraged longs get flushed out - the market is now net short π
There is now a π³ incentive to pump the price & liquidate shorts
8/9 The big question: is this the end of the bull market..? π€
We have a @glassnode, but not a crystal ball π€·ββοΈ
I don't think this was it. Like I tweeted earlier today (
We have a @glassnode, but not a crystal ball π€·ββοΈ
I don't think this was it. Like I tweeted earlier today (
https://twitter.com/dilutionproof/status/1394905108455084039?s=20), I would expect more HODLers selling, e.g. moving RHODL & Reserve Risk into the red
9/9 If this indeed was not end of the bull market, it would mean that we have just experienced the largest bull market drawdown since 2013 πͺ
These are extremely volatile times - stay safe out there (e.g., don't use leverage but just buy dips via spot or DCA)! βοΈ
These are extremely volatile times - stay safe out there (e.g., don't use leverage but just buy dips via spot or DCA)! βοΈ
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