Noble Francis Profile picture
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housing.

Jun 10, 2021, 8 tweets

UK construction products imports volumes from the EU in 2021 Q1 fell by 16.1% compared to 2020 Q4 & were 0.8% higher than a year ago whilst construction products exports to the EU in 2021 Q1 were 48.6% lower than in Q4 & 28.7% lower than a year ago BUT...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... note some very important caveats. These are inappropriate reference points given that 2020 Q4 was distorted (artificially high) due to stockpiling & 2020 Q1 was distorted (artificially low) due to an impact from initial lockdowns...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... A more appropriate reference point would be to compare with the average of 2016-18, prior to any Brexit deadlines in 2019 & 2020. Given the stockpiling in 2020 Q4, it is also worth while using the average of Q4 & 2021 Q1...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... UK construction products imports volumes from the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 fell by 12.1% compared to the 2016-18 average whilst exports to the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 were 14.1% lower than the 2016-18 average. This is...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... in line with indications from industry. Large firms encountered issues in January 2021 but had largely adjusted to new systems by February so that there was a minor negative impact on their trade (partially offset by stockpiling beforehand) whilst...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... many small construction products firms trading with the EU encountered issues & delays throughout 2021 Q1 due to the increased admin/bureaucracy & delays from incorrect forms etc...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... Note UK construction products imports value (rather than volume) from the EU for the 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 average rose by 4.8% vs the 2016-18 average & exports were 1.7% higher, illustrating the impact of the sharp rise in imported product prices...
#ukconstruction #brexit

... It is also worth noting that whilst UK construction products trade (volumes) with the EU fell in 2021 Q1, even accounting for distortions, UK construction products imports to the rest of the world rose although UK construction products exports fell.
#ukconstruction #brexit

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