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Noble Francis Profile picture
@NobleFrancis
Jun 10, 2021 • 8 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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UK construction products imports volumes from the EU in 2021 Q1 fell by 16.1% compared to 2020 Q4 & were 0.8% higher than a year ago whilst construction products exports to the EU in 2021 Q1 were 48.6% lower than in Q4 & 28.7% lower than a year ago BUT...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... note some very important caveats. These are inappropriate reference points given that 2020 Q4 was distorted (artificially high) due to stockpiling & 2020 Q1 was distorted (artificially low) due to an impact from initial lockdowns...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... A more appropriate reference point would be to compare with the average of 2016-18, prior to any Brexit deadlines in 2019 & 2020. Given the stockpiling in 2020 Q4, it is also worth while using the average of Q4 & 2021 Q1...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... UK construction products imports volumes from the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 fell by 12.1% compared to the 2016-18 average whilst exports to the EU for the average of 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 were 14.1% lower than the 2016-18 average. This is...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... in line with indications from industry. Large firms encountered issues in January 2021 but had largely adjusted to new systems by February so that there was a minor negative impact on their trade (partially offset by stockpiling beforehand) whilst...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... many small construction products firms trading with the EU encountered issues & delays throughout 2021 Q1 due to the increased admin/bureaucracy & delays from incorrect forms etc...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... Note UK construction products imports value (rather than volume) from the EU for the 2020 Q4 & 2021 Q1 average rose by 4.8% vs the 2016-18 average & exports were 1.7% higher, illustrating the impact of the sharp rise in imported product prices...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... It is also worth noting that whilst UK construction products trade (volumes) with the EU fell in 2021 Q1, even accounting for distortions, UK construction products imports to the rest of the world rose although UK construction products exports fell.
#ukconstruction #brexit

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More from @NobleFrancis

Noble Francis Profile picture
May 16
A thread on the latest UK construction employment data for 2024 Q1 as the industry continues to lose key skilled workers who will be critical for economic growth, productivity, building more homes, better infrastructure & net zero transition. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
There were 2.08 million people employed in UK construction in 2024 Q1, which is 1.9% lower than in Q4 & a year ago plus 14.3% lower (347,000 fewer workers) than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. This sharp fall in construction workers is... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... partly due to the double-digit falls in activity in the 2 largest construction sectors, private house building & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). The sharp decline in UK construction employment also includes the... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 13 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
May 10
A long thread on the latest ONS construction output data for March 2024... Construction output in a weather-affected March was 0.4% lower than in rain-affected February & 2.2% lower than a year ago according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Given the impact of the poor weather on construction activity in 2024 Q1, especially outdoor construction activity, 2024 Q2 may see a degree catch-up activity, although note that... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
... whilst an extent of catch up activity in construction may occur on larger sites, most smaller sites lack the additional spare capacity needed to catch up so work generally just ends up being pushed back instead. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Read 24 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Mar 19
A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
However, the age-demographic problem & the loss of UK-born construction employment has accelerated rapidly between 2019 Q1 & 2023 Q4 with a loss of more than 300,000 UK construction workers in less than five years. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
Read 13 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Feb 16
4,378 UK construction firms went out of business in the year to December 2023. This is 5.1% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to this morning's Government Insolvency Service data. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The 4,378 UK construction firms that went under in the UK in year to December 2023 was at its highest levels since the financial crisis, over 10 years ago. In fact,... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
... UK construction insolvencies were already at their highest levels since the financial crisis at the end of 2022 & have continued to gradually rise since then & UK construction insolvencies are expected to continue to rise further in 2024 H1. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 11 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Oct 4, 2023
UK brick deliveries in August 2023 (a proxy for actual house building starts as housebuilders rushed through 'technical starts' in Q2, doing the minimum necessary to get ahead of the uprated building regulations F, L, O & S that add cost) were... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... the lagged impact of mortgage rate rises in May & June on not only the housing market but house building starts, with house builders unsurprisingly focusing on completing existing developments rather than starting new developments. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
Read 7 tweets
Noble Francis Profile picture
Jun 29, 2023
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were 6.1% lower than in the previous quarter & 17.8% lower than a year ago according to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC). (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were also 34.0% lower than the recent peak in 2022 Q2 although note that this recent peak for starts was an artificial peak boosted by house builders getting ahead of the building regulations changes... (2/n)
#ukhousing #housing
... with the building regulations changes adding extra cost for house builders due to uprated Part F, Part L Part O & Part S (Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles). Hence, why completions did not spike in line with starts last year. (3/n)
#ukhousing #housing
Read 10 tweets

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