Chase W. Nelson|倪誠志 Profile picture
Scientist @theNCI @NIH @AMNH @TaiwanGoldCard | Bioinformatics, cancer, evolution, viruses | Into coffee, lifting, reading, singing | Views my own | he/他

Jun 19, 2021, 6 tweets

TODAY’S (6月19日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉127 local + 1 imported cases 📉trend
📉20 deaths 📉trend
📉0.3% test positive rate
📈4.0% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪36k tests ⤵️trend
⚠️WORKPLACE MOBILITY remains HIGHER than other outbreak-halting countries ⬇️ 1/6

DAILY TESTS REPORTED. Daily counts are subject to bias, with the fewest tests consistently reported on Mondays. This emphasizes the importance of 7-day averages, not daily values. The mean seems to be slowly rising, even though today's mean dipped. 2/6

DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. DEATHS (crimson red bars) are seen at the bottom.
DEATHS AGE DISTRIBUTION for May 1-June 19:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years
3/6

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF CASES. Local cases from May 1-June 18 (age data for cases lag by a day), including those with missing locations. Only a single category is provided for ages >70, which constitute 14% of all cases. DATA ➡️ data.cdc.gov.tw/en/dataset/ags… 4/6

Our local case fatality rate for May 1-June 18 is 4.0%—sadly a new record for us, and higher than the world average of 1-3%. This is at least partly due to a disproportionate number of older cases, but also possibly indicative of undetected cases. 5/6

CASES & DEATHS and their 7-DAY AVERAGE BY AGE for May 1-June 18 (latest age-matched data available). Mostly good news. Keeping eyes peeled for 1) a spike 1-2 weeks after Dragon Boat, when some traveled of necessity and 2) workplace clusters due to lack of #WorkFromHome. 6/6

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