My first #COVID19🦠 infection: a description.

SUMMARY: I was positive for 12 days. Day 1 had debilitating headache, fever, and fatigue. I was functional by day 5, followed by steady improvement. Post-nasal drip continues to the present, weeks later.

Some observations. 1/11 ME: male, 34yo, healthy, 4x vaccinated. My last boost (Moderna 2v) was 252 days before getting infected.

VIRUS: likely Omicron XBB or BA.2.75.

WHAT HELPED: Advil, neti pot, water, sleep, vitamins, fruit. Lemon, honey, cinnamon, and a dash of cayenne pepper in warm water. 2/11

Nice science by @flodebarre & team in the raccoon dog report, providing important details and (in my view) weak evidence for a wildlife origin of SARS-CoV-2.

However, relevant evidence and reasons for preferring scenario A over B below are not discussed & I remain agnostic.
1/14

https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1637960294205931521

Favoring a wildlife origin (scenario A), I found the following most compelling:
🔹SARS-CoV-2+ environmental samples are clustered in the area where susceptible wildlife were held
🔹sample Q61 contained sequence with 100% match to raccoon dog but none with 100% match to human
2/14

Data from the @TaiwanCDC confirm that #COVID19 vaccines help against #Omicron.

Specifically, the rate of death decreases with each additional vaccine dose, for every age group in the population.

This is despite numerous assumptions biased against vaccine effectiveness.
1/13 First, consider the population of Taiwan, stratified by age and vaccination status. The single largest group is 30-49 year-olds with 3 doses (dark green).

This is the pattern of deaths one would expect if deaths were random, i.e., if both vaccination and age had no effect.
2/13

I was recently fortunate to be interviewed by @niccijsmith at @TelGlobalHealth regarding #Taiwan's #COVID situation.

Unfortunately, certain media outlets used my observations to play politics.

Instead of spreading hype, here's what I wish they'd covered.
1/

https://twitter.com/CWM_en/status/1523920775559974924

Everyone should know:
1⃣COVID is airborne
2⃣the top symptoms of COVID-19 resemble a cold
3⃣some people develop long COVID
4⃣risks from COVID-19 vs. vaccines
5⃣rapid antigen tests are a good indicator of whether you're contagious, but can be negative even when you’re infected
2/

In a world with #Omicron (a rare mutational event), the drug #molnupiravir (a mutagen) was just authorized by the @US_FDA despite:

1⃣ NO estimate of the number of mutations it causes per virus

2⃣ NO estimate of onward viral transmission while on the drug
fda.gov/news-events/pr… @US_FDA Given #molnupiravir's usage to treat #COVID19 is inevitable, what can be done to prevent the potential acceleration of #SARSCoV2 variants?
1⃣patients should strictly ISOLATE WHILE TAKING, especially in the first days on the drug

2⃣ALL DOSES should be taken PRECISELY as directed

🧵The @US_FDA's materials on @Merck's #Molnupiravir and its potential to induce problematic #SARSCoV2 variants are HERE:

📄section 4.3.2.5 (pp. 30-36)
👉fda.gov/media/154418/d…

📺at 2h51m, 3h46m, 4h5m, 5h12m, 7h32m
👉

Observations to follow.
1/n @US_FDA @Merck First, @Merck and the @US_FDA panelists have done excellent work compiling and analyzing the available data. This was not an easy vote (13 YES/10 NO).

However, specifically on the potential for molnupiravir to induce new viral variants, the results only augment my concerns.
2/n

TODAY at #Virological: throughout the #COVID19 pandemic, there has been a tendency to underestimate the potential of #SARSCoV2 to mutate and adapt.

As the @US_FDA meets Tuesday to discuss #molnupiravir, @sarperotto and I fear another oversight.🧵
1/15
virological.org/t/mutagenic-an… To be clear, I believe vaccines and antiviral drugs BOTH have critical parts to play in the fight against #COVID19.

Oral antivirals are of particular interest given their potential for equitable distribution.

This is NOT an argument against antivirals.
2/15

TODAY’S (6月21日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉75 local + 0 imported cases 📉trend
📉20 deaths 📈trend
📈0.6% test positive rate
📈4.2% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪13k tests ⤵️capacity
⚠️It's Monday. Numbers of tests and their positive rates are key metrics. ⬇️ 1/6 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. DEATHS (crimson red bars) at the bottom. THRILLED to have room for the chart legend specifically in the top right quadrant! 2/6

今天在 🇹🇼 #天下 @CWM_en 雜誌已刊出： "台灣抗疫成就 遠距工作、創新檢測成關鍵 "。 我與 @cptwei 寫了一篇有關建議 #Taiwan 對抗升 #COVID19 疫情的文章，主要是落實遠距工作、新的科學性篩檢方式。所有工作性質可以遠距辦公的員工，都必須改為遠距工作。重點如下 ⬇️ 1/6 opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/5… 當前的台灣可說是提供了病毒滋養的溫床 — 尤其SARS-CoV-2 #Alpha (B.1.1.7)。依賴症狀的檢疫措施將會漏掉至少 50% 的病毒感染者。新型冠狀病毒會懸浮在空氣中並隨時間經過充斥整個房間。像辦公室這種通風不良的空調環境尤其危險。2/6

TODAY’S (6月20日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉107 local + 2 imported cases 📉trend
📉11 deaths 📉trend
📈0.6% test positive rate
📈4.1% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪20k tests ⤵️capacity
⚠️Fewer cases BUT many fewer tests, higher positivity, and higher CFR. ⬇️ 1/6 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. DEATHS (crimson red bars) at the bottom.
AGE DISTRIBUTION OF DEATHS for May 1-June 20:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years
2/6

中文 version 6月19日 #Taiwan 🇹🇼 #COVID19 update.
今日（6/19）的疫情圖表，翻譯了中文版，共六張圖.
🙏 謝謝 @mitchlinmusic 翻譯! (如果中文有錯，請跟我們說！)
1️⃣ 高風險人流趨勢 - @cptwei analysis - WORKPLACE MOBILITY 辦公 remains HIGHER than other outbreak-halting countries ⬇️ 1/6

https://twitter.com/chasewnelson/status/1406156503157919754

2️⃣ 篩檢量能的趨勢，並與確診數做比較列出陽性率 2/6

TODAY’S (6月19日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉127 local + 1 imported cases 📉trend
📉20 deaths 📉trend
📉0.3% test positive rate
📈4.0% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪36k tests ⤵️trend
⚠️WORKPLACE MOBILITY remains HIGHER than other outbreak-halting countries ⬇️ 1/6 DAILY TESTS REPORTED. Daily counts are subject to bias, with the fewest tests consistently reported on Mondays. This emphasizes the importance of 7-day averages, not daily values. The mean seems to be slowly rising, even though today's mean dipped. 2/6

TODAY’S (6月18日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📈187 local + 1 imported cases 📉trend
📈21 deaths 📉trend
📉0.4% test positive rate
📈3.9% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪42k tests 📈capacity
💡Good to see a record high tests (42.2k) and record low positivity (0.4%). 1/6 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. DEATHS (crimson red bars) are seen at the bottom.
DEATHS AGE DISTRIBUTION for May 1-June 18:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years
2/6

TODAY’S (6月17日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📈175 local + 0 imported cases 📉trend
📈19 deaths 📉trend
📉0.5% test positive rate
📈3.8% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪36k tests 📈capacity
💡Good to see concurrent downward trends in cases, deaths, and positivity. 1/6 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. Reported DEATHS (crimson red bars) are seen at the bottom. For deaths from May 1-June 17:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years old
2/6

TODAY’S (6月16日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📈167 local + 3 imported cases 📉trend
📈18 deaths 📉trend
📉0.5% test positive rate
📈3.7% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪34k tests 📉capacity
💡Dropping test numbers hopefully temporary due to weekend and holiday. 1/5 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. Reported DEATHS (crimson red bars) are seen at the bottom. For deaths from May 1-June 16:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years old
2/5

中文 version — 6月15日 #Taiwan 🇹🇼 #COVID19 update.
今日（6/15）的疫情圖表，翻譯了中文版，共六張圖：
1⃣ 篩檢量能的趨勢，並與確診數做比較列出陽性率
🙏 謝謝 @mitchlinmusic 翻譯! (如果中文有錯，請跟我們說！)
1/5

https://twitter.com/chasewnelson/status/1404697078299729921

2⃣ 確診數趨勢 （當日公布數版本）
2/5

TODAY’S (6月15日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉132 local + 3 imported cases, 📉trend
📉8 deaths, 📉trend
📉0.8% test positive rate
📈3.7% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
⬆️18k tests, ⬇️trend
💡Low test numbers for a Tuesday, w/ capacity trending DOWN given holiday. 1/5 DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. Reported DEATHS (crimson red bars) are seen at the bottom. For deaths from May 1-June 15:
🔴63% are >70
🔴27% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years old
2/5