Thread by @eervin1

#Bitcoin recently experienced the ominous "death cross" where the 50D moving avg crosses below the 200D MA. So much talk in #Crypto about the golden cross or "death" cross but does it really mean anything? /thread

1/Over the past seven'ish years there have been 8 bullish "golden" crosses and 9 bearish "death" crosses. Since the current one is unconfirmed so let's say 8 and 8. But they are only "right" less than half the time.

2/But that shouldn't matter too much if the magnitude of the "accurate" calls is more meaningful than the misses for the bad calls. So we looked at the returns of a "buy the golden cross go to cash on the death cross" The results are surprising. Nearly identical.

3/But what about the returns for each period? Let's look at the results for each Golden Cross including the peak "bliss" moment and the "max pain" of the golden cross strategy.

4/ How about the same numbers for the death cross, what did you avoid or miss if you got it wrong.

5/ What if you just bought bitcoin and held it for 3 or 12 months after a golden cross?

6/ What if you sold bitcoin during the death cross periods and stayed out for 3 or 12 months. (alternatively you could short it.)

7/ Conclusion? It is an overhyped metric that doesn't really make a ton of sense, but it isn't as harmful as many of the market timing strategies out there.

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