Thread by @chrisprener

I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Monday, 7/5 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

Our statewide 7-day average is headed towards 1,000 new cases per day, with increases in all 3 meso regions. “Outstate” remains most concerning, though. 1/12

In that broad “outstate” swath, there are now three areas of greatest growth in new cases - NW MO around St. Jo, Mid-MO, and SW MO. Of these, SW MO is by far the most concerning. 2/12

In NW MO, what started in Worth County has spread, with steep increases in Adair, Buchanan, Gentry, and Holt counties. 3/12

In Mid-MO, rates are much lower, but Boone, Cole, and Cooper counties are showing the same beginnings to increases that we’ve seen elsewhere in Northern and SW Missouri. 4/12

To the south is the worst of the increases, however. I am skeptical of the recent slight downward shifts here. These are being influenced by limited reporting over the past few days, and we won’t know the full picture until later this week (starting Wednesday). 5/12

There are now upward trajectories in new cases in almost every Lake of the Ozarks and Ozark Mountains county that I track closely. Reynolds County is the only one without a jump. 6/12

Further south and west, all but one county (Dade) is continuing to show a general upward trend. I’m skeptical of the recent drops in most of these counties, and of Dade’s large drop. I wouldn’t draw any positive conclusions until Friday or Saturday. 7/12

I don't have updated hospitalization data from HHS yet, but @MercySGF's CEO @CAOMercySGF shared today that they had run out of vents 👇. His update today indicated that they had been able to find a few more. Waiting for an update from @SDECoxHealth. 8/12

Here in #StLouis, what we’re seeing are slight increases in quite a few counties. These are not nearly as severe as what we are seeing elsewhere, but it's worth seeing these as warning signs to watch closely. 9/12

Taken together, all of these regional increases are being reflected, to varying degrees, in every metro area except Cape Girardeau right now. 10/12

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 11/12

Additional data, maps, and plots are on my tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

Updates are going to be off schedule this week due to some disrupted travel. Will do my best to keep folks posted. Thanks for your patience last week and this week! 12/12