Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jul 19 to Jul 25 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 192 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
& ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe is facing surge in #COVID19 new cases e.g. NL, R-eff=1.47; DK=1.33; FR=1.43; CH=1.38; ESP=1.26; BE=1.25; UK=1.19; PRT=1.12, with low or very low mortality for 7 more days. Vaccine coverage: 50-70% received 1 dose.

3/9 - Eastern - Central Europe countries, but e.g. Russia (R-eff=1.01), Belarus (0.99), Austria=1.44; Italy=1.42; Greece (1.23); Turkey (1.12), will remain safe in their green zones, with strong pressure from the Delta variant.
Germany=1.31; Czechia=1.04; Poland=1.07, Bulgar=1.12

4/9 - Africa -
North Afr. experiences surge at high level, Libya (R-eff=1.39); Morocco=1.36, with alarming mortality levels reported from Tunisia=1.01.
Subsaharan Afr. faces strong pressure from #COVID19 e.g. Sénégal=1.41; Ghana=1.19; Nigeria=1.26, although large underreporting.

5/9 - South and Central Africa experience high level of #COVID19 epidemic activity, but South Africa (R-eff=0.86) and Namibia (0.75) have taken over control of their new contaminations; while Zimbabwe (1.18) and Mozambique (1.15) rise for 7 more days.

6/9 - South-East Asia experiences high level of #COVID19 epidemic activity, e.g. Indonesia (R-eff=1.22); Malaysia 1.20; Thailand 1.17; Laos=1.30; Burma=1.26; Bangladesh (1.10) for 7 more days.
Vietnam=1.45 surges and has left its safety zone, with very low mortality.

7/9 - Asia and Pacific regions which have chosen #ZeroCovid strategy will stay safe for 7 more days: e.g. China (R-eff=1.17, 33 cases, 0 death); Taiwan=0.80, 18 cases, 4 deaths; Australia=1.29, 117 cases, 0 death; New Zealand=1.54, 3 cases, 0 death.

8/9 - North America has a contrasted #COVID19 epidemic situation, with Canada (R-eff=0.86, 70.8% received 1 dose) being safe in the whole country, while the USA=1.20 (56.5%) surge in their activity in most states, plateauing at low levels in mortality for 7 more days.

9/9 - Latin America is improving in its #COVID19 epidemic situation e.g. in Brazil (R-eff=0.86), Chile=0.75, or more slowly improving e.g. in Argentina=0.94 or Ecuador=1.09, while experiencing surge in Mexico=1.20 with medium mortality for 7 more days.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0