Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jul 20 to Jul 26 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 192 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
& ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe is facing surge in #COVID19 new cases e.g. AT (R-eff=1.44); FR=1.37; DK=1.31; NL=1.36; CH=1.36; IRL=1.34; ESP=1.30; IT=1.39; BE=1.23; UK=1.19; PRT=1.10, with low or very low mortality for 7 more days. Vaccine coverage: 50-70% received 1 dose.

3/9 - Eastern - Central Europe countries, but e.g. Russia (R-eff=1.01), Belarus (1.0), Greece (1.20); Turkey (1.17), will remain safe in their green zones, with strong pressure from the Delta variant.
Germany=1.30; Czechia=1.01; Poland=1.07, Bulgar=1.09 stay safe for 7 more days.

4/9 - Africa -
North Afr. experiences surge at high level, Libya (R-eff=1.36); Morocco=1.33, with alarming mortality levels reported from Tunisia=1.01.
Subsaharan Afr. faces strong pressure from #COVID19 e.g. Sénégal=1.37; Ghana=1.18; Nigeria=1.17, although large underreporting.

5/9 - South and Central Africa experience high level of #COVID19 epidemic activity, but South Africa (R-eff=0.87) and Namibia (0.69) have taken over control of their new contaminations; while Zimbabwe (1.12) and Mozambique (1.15) rise for 7 more days.

6/9 - South-East Asia experiences high level of #COVID19 epidemic activity, e.g. Indonesia (R-eff=1.20); Malaysia 1.19; Thailand 1.20; Laos=1.25; Burma=1.24; Bangladesh (1.j09) for 7 more days.
Vietnam=1.45 surges and has left its safety zone, with very low mortality.

7/9 - Asia and Pacific regions which have chosen #ZeroCovid strategy will stay safe for 7 more days: e.g. China (R-eff=1.19, 65 cases, 0 death); Taiwan=0.78, 21 cases, 1 death; Australia=1.29, 104 cases, 1 death; New Zealand=1.54, 5 cases, 0 death.

8/9 - North America has a contrasted #COVID19 epidemic situation, with Canada (R-eff=0.97, 71.0% received 1 dose) being safe in the whole country, while the USA=1.23 (56.6%) surge in their activity in most states, plateauing at low levels in mortality for 7 more days.

9/9 - Latin America is improving in its #COVID19 epidemic situation e.g. in Brazil (R-eff=0.90), Chile=0.72, or more slowly improving e.g. in Argentina=0.93 or Ecuador=1.12, while experiencing surge in Mexico=1.20 with medium mortality for 7 more days.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0