Thread by @CompoundKFC

$FB's case in📊1/:

#Facebook is the core #moat to $FB with arguably the largest (2.9B MAU) and strongest (fundamentally interpersonal SM) network effect on the market. Displacing the #1 keep-in-touch SM'll be tough, competes w/ email and phone, but enables blitz-scaled bolt-ons.

🌏2/ While #Facebook has seemingly saturated the market in NA (at ~53% of MAU/pop) and EU (~47%), bulk of user growth is in AP-RoW, long runway from current ~28% penetration (some more incl. #WhatsApp).
Using DAU/MAU as proxy for engagement we see the stickiness of FB-Messenger.

📈3/ Billions of users in #Zucc's hands driving unrelenting growth in ARPU, across the board. As NA-EU prints money, AP-RoW will further develop and get online while $FB's SMs enables ppl & businesses to prosper. Long-term opportunity of growing ARPU on this userbase is immense.

👑4/ Pound-for-pound king of $ARPU.
US-Can. is its crown jewel and a testament to how valuable a developed userbase can be with $FB - those free users are worth more then $NFLX's US paying users, w/ 0 marginal cost and laughable opex🤯. That it still grows from this scale is🥜.

🕸️5/ $AMZN provides logistics- and cloud-as-as-Service, $NFLX TV-aaS, $GOOGL AI-aaS, $SPOT publisher-aaS, $SHOP SaaS - expensive moats to defend.
$FB has connection-aaS. What would 3.5B users cost to acquire? The largest web of personal netwrking is a priceless & low mnt. farm.

🌜6/ In 10 years, if AP-RoW caps out at 3B MAU (3% growth), only 10% ARPU gr is needed to equal present world ad revenue ($29B->102B).

If instead ARPU compounds 15% ($13.0->52.7), AP-RoW revenue reaches $163B.

If also MAU grows at 5% (2.2B->3.6B) its $190B, 191% '21 ad rev.

📱7/ While reinventing the web (#metaverse) gives R&D, capex & growth opportunities, I believe their mere present offering in intl markets offers great optionality on top of residual growth from NA-EU.
If you see their SM as a #moat, the true value of the userbase is yet to come.

I reckon you people liked $FB 👀
@Pigeonomics @TSOH_Investing @GianniDiMattia6 @cap_zay

Correction, transcribed wrong penetration numbers (at 2/), those were for DAU I think. MAU would be 70% in NA, ~61% in EU tho Russia has much lower pen (but growing) so its a drag-down. RoW and AP (excl. China) sits around 40-45%. Sorry it slipped thru, sounded wrong too.