1/ Using GISAID data of 7 most prevalent #COVID19 variants from 42 countries, Delta variant still seems to have the largest growth advantage, but...
2/ Using sequencing data from the UK, AY.3 (which is also classified as Delta) and B.1.621 might have a growth advantage compared to B.1.617.2.
Word of caution: especially numbers of B.1.621 in the UK are currently low and growth advantage might be overestimated.
3/ Using GISAID data, B.1.621 seems to have a significant growth advantage compared to Delta only in the UK. The growth advantage of B.1.621 in the UK is therefore unlikely to indicate increased infectiousness. But might also be GISAID data issue
4/ On the other hand AY.3 seems to grow in other regions as well (USA; outbreak.info).
5/ Raw sequencing data in UK on a logit scale is shown below. Please note the downward deflection of B.1.617.2 which indicates that 'something else' is growing faster than B.1.617.2. This is most likely AY.3.
6/ In summary, more data is needed but I suggest keeping an eye on AY.3. It might be a different Delta variant compared to B1.617.2. *If* it has a real growth advantage over B.1.617.2, numbers in the UK might look like below
8/ Important to keep an eye on this too.
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9/ Sidenotes:
1. Two weeks ago I performed the same analysis with similar results (below).
2. If only AY sublineages are difficult to classify (but not B.1.617.2), B.1.617.2 still seems to decrease in the UK during last 3 weeks suggesting that 'something else' is growing faster.
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