Thread by @therealarod1984

8/19 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights:

1) PCR Pos% peak holds at 8/9
2) Rt at 0.99
3) Cases decline WoW, predicting weekend peak
4) Hospitalizations rate of growth down to 24.1%
5) Breakdown of 194 reported fatalities and comp to 2020 wave

1/n

8/19 Rate of Growth (RoG) Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, RoG is calculated by comparing Week over Week (WoW) 7DMAs

* PCR Pos% flat. Up 0.2% WoW after 5 days below 0% and in decline. (More in 3/n)
* Case RoG down to 26.7%
* Hospitalization RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%

2/n
.

8/19 Positivity Rates & Rt:

* Cases arrive to state over time. Pattern is Tue, Wed, Thurs - pos% is higher, Sat, Sun, Mon, pos% gets revised down. Happens over and over
* 8/9 peak holds
* PCR pos% 18.50%, Up 0.2% WoW
* Covidestim Texas Rt at 0.99 (below magic # of 1.0)

3/n
.

8/19 Cases

* 10.8K Cases vs 12.0K Cases last Thurs, lowering 7DMA
* Case RoG declines to 26.7%
* See link below w/ prediction of a weekend Case peak for Texas. Yesterday's data on tests, positive tests, and cases is only firming up my confidence.

4/n
.

8/1o Hospitalizations

* Not great, not terrible
* +303 to 12705. Last Wed was +299
* % increase was lower this week than last
* RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%.
* In the vs 2020 charts, you can see bends towards peak for both general and ICU
* #weekend?!
* Predicting 8/30 peak

5/n
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8/19 Fatalities Part 1 of 2:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 7/28. 2020 thru 6/27, waves 13 months apart
* 2021 Actual - 22.2% less fatalities than 2020. 2021 Projections are -11.0%
* You can see Summer 2020 7DMA (green line) really taking off. This pattern will continue

6/n
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8/19 Fatalities Part 2

* 194 Reported today
* +70 vs last Thur
* 84.4% from past 2 weeks. Quicker arrival than projected as usual
* 3 days out from T-3 weeks to July. Very little will be filed into July after that & we will be able to analyze and compare with 2020 then.

7/n
.

8/19 Primer on Fatalities:

For any of you that want to geek out, you can read 7/n-10n here, and then the 7/20/20 thread in 10/n on fatality arrivals and projections.

8/n
.

8/19 Conclusion

* Pos% & Rt still looking good even after usual work week increases. Arrivals over the weekend will form a nice curve/decline for pos% & 8/9/21 peak should hold.
* Cases - looking good for weekend peak
* Hospitalizations - calling an 8/30 peak

9/end

A couple of typos in this one. 8/19 Hospitalizations. Not 8/1o. And then "Last Thursday was +299." Not Wednesday. Geez