1) PCR Pos% peak holds at 8/9 2) Rt at 0.99 3) Cases decline WoW, predicting weekend peak 4) Hospitalizations rate of growth down to 24.1% 5) Breakdown of 194 reported fatalities and comp to 2020 wave
** For Case & Hosps, RoG is calculated by comparing Week over Week (WoW) 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% flat. Up 0.2% WoW after 5 days below 0% and in decline. (More in 3/n)
* Case RoG down to 26.7%
* Hospitalization RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%
2/n .
8/19 Positivity Rates & Rt:
* Cases arrive to state over time. Pattern is Tue, Wed, Thurs - pos% is higher, Sat, Sun, Mon, pos% gets revised down. Happens over and over
* 8/9 peak holds
* PCR pos% 18.50%, Up 0.2% WoW
* Covidestim Texas Rt at 0.99 (below magic # of 1.0)
3/n .
8/19 Cases
* 10.8K Cases vs 12.0K Cases last Thurs, lowering 7DMA
* Case RoG declines to 26.7%
* See link below w/ prediction of a weekend Case peak for Texas. Yesterday's data on tests, positive tests, and cases is only firming up my confidence.
* Not great, not terrible
* +303 to 12705. Last Wed was +299
* % increase was lower this week than last
* RoG down 2.0% to 24.1%.
* In the vs 2020 charts, you can see bends towards peak for both general and ICU
* #weekend?!
* Predicting 8/30 peak
5/n .
8/19 Fatalities Part 1 of 2:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 7/28. 2020 thru 6/27, waves 13 months apart
* 2021 Actual - 22.2% less fatalities than 2020. 2021 Projections are -11.0%
* You can see Summer 2020 7DMA (green line) really taking off. This pattern will continue
6/n .
8/19 Fatalities Part 2
* 194 Reported today
* +70 vs last Thur
* 84.4% from past 2 weeks. Quicker arrival than projected as usual
* 3 days out from T-3 weeks to July. Very little will be filed into July after that & we will be able to analyze and compare with 2020 then.
7/n .
8/19 Primer on Fatalities:
For any of you that want to geek out, you can read 7/n-10n here, and then the 7/20/20 thread in 10/n on fatality arrivals and projections.
* Pos% & Rt still looking good even after usual work week increases. Arrivals over the weekend will form a nice curve/decline for pos% & 8/9/21 peak should hold.
* Cases - looking good for weekend peak
* Hospitalizations - calling an 8/30 peak
9/end
A couple of typos in this one. 8/19 Hospitalizations. Not 8/1o. And then "Last Thursday was +299." Not Wednesday. Geez
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Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.