I’m going go out on a limb here and say someone in this highlighted area is probably going to get a foot plus of rain tomorrow. Not widespread to be clear but isolated totals 12”+ are definitely reasonable. I’ll explain below👇 #pawx #njwx #ida #rain #flooding
As Ida will be undergoing baroclinic process and transitioning from a tropical depression into a extratropical storm we’ll actually see some similarities to a winter storm. Warm air advection will be playing a part in aiding Frontogenesis tomorrow across the Northeast as…
The contrast in temperature as noted in the pictures will create an enhanced area of lift. Along the edge of those juiciest dewpoints and under the FGEN setup that is where a combination of the best forcing along with moisture content will be aiding in producing anomalous…
Rainfall rates potentially 1-3”/hr at times. Here’s good look from a broad view of what’s going on. Combo of FGEN banding and the remnant moisture of #Ida plus the cyclogenesis will aid in creating a widespread 2-4” of rainfall across the Northeast and Midatlantic…
But also create swaths of 4-8 and 3-6” with isolated totals 10-12”+ . You can see the moisture flow being pulled in from the GOM aiding in initiating Convective activity on the coast and offshore simultaneously while Ida’s remnants get pulled into Frontogenesis intiation…
Also should be noted it’s not 24 hours of rainfall but likely a 12 hour window of precip with the bulk of the heaviest precip happening in a 4-6 hour timeframe tomorrow into Thursday morning. I’ll be doing a shorter thread on Southern New England Flood thread next. Stay safe yall
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