'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'
We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?
The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -
#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations
See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?
'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories
In contrast, here is the USA. Cases and hospitalisations remain correlative in a ‘pandemic among the unvaccinated’ -
And here is the picture in Australia. On this analysis, decoupling is yet to be seen
NSW hit 70% single doses (≥16s) yday and should hit 70% double doses in ~6 weeks
VIC will reach 70% single doses in ~3 weeks and double doses around end of October
If cases and hospitalisations are more or less in lockstep, it will be a long couple of months for healthworkers
Not to mention - state-wide vaccination averages do not account for vaccination rates in certain areas where there are more cases