Thread by @juliette_io

'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic

Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓

It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -

Denmark -

Iceland -

In contrast, here is the USA. Cases and hospitalisations remain correlative in a ‘pandemic among the unvaccinated’ -

And here is the picture in Australia. On this analysis, decoupling is yet to be seen

NSW hit 70% single doses (≥16s) yday and should hit 70% double doses in ~6 weeks

VIC will reach 70% single doses in ~3 weeks and double doses around end of October

If cases and hospitalisations are more or less in lockstep, it will be a long couple of months for healthworkers

Not to mention - state-wide vaccination averages do not account for vaccination rates in certain areas where there are more cases