'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Denmark -
Iceland -
In contrast, here is the USA. Cases and hospitalisations remain correlative in a ‘pandemic among the unvaccinated’ -
And here is the picture in Australia. On this analysis, decoupling is yet to be seen
NSW hit 70% single doses (≥16s) yday and should hit 70% double doses in ~6 weeks

VIC will reach 70% single doses in ~3 weeks and double doses around end of October

If cases and hospitalisations are more or less in lockstep, it will be a long couple of months for healthworkers
Not to mention - state-wide vaccination averages do not account for vaccination rates in certain areas where there are more cases

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Juliette O'Brien

Juliette O'Brien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @juliette_io

12 Oct
🧭 NSW LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 diff outbreaks:

1. Southwest / West Syd: +162 = 4414 (-51%)
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +50 = 1513 (-56%)
3. Regional NSW: +137 = 3064 (+36%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details 👇
#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Regional NSW -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 410 (10%) 😏

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +31=851 (-3%) 😃

Kiama: +0 = 3 (-84%)
Shellharbour: +14 = 153 (-21%)
Shoalhaven: +3 = 121 (55%)
Wollongong: +14 = 574 (-2%)
📍 Far West: +1=46 (-45%) 🤗

Broken Hill: +1=30 (-45%)
Wentworth: +0=16
Read 16 tweets
12 Oct
🧭 VIC LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

VIC as 3 different outbreaks:

1. North/West Metro: +867 = 13,050 (+82%)
2. Rest of Metro: +479 = 6,670 (+352%)
3. Regional VIC: +110 = 1,190 (+441%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details👇

#COVID19Vic #covid19aus
1. North/West Metro (original growth areas) -

📍 North Melbourne: +511=7807 (50%) 😏

Banyule: +24=325 (102%)
Darebin: +53=686 (144%)
Hume: +203=3589 (17%) 👏
Moreland: +63=1135 (46%)
Nillumbik: +6=85 (325%)
Whittlesea: +162=1987 (116%)
📍 West Melbourne: +356=5243 (170%) 😒

Brimbank: +99=1345 (209%)
Hobsons Bay: +25=352 (72%)
Maribyrnong: +30=405 (426%)
Melton: +80=1277 (239%)
Moonee Valley: +35=522 (129%)
Wyndham: +87=1342 (115%)
Read 13 tweets
7 Oct
Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw
1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration
2. NSW

Current hotspot declaration: 26 Jun - 11 Oct
Cases: 584 daily in Greater Sydney (7-day avg)
Vax: 70.3% 2 doses
Read 7 tweets
7 Oct
🧭 NSW LGA dataset updated today after yday was skipped

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - I've made a change to this summary based on feedback (ty @k_eagar)

Central Coast / Illawarra Shoalhaven moved from Greater Sydney to regional NSW. This means ...

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
The perspective on growth in Greater Syd changes - growth in last 2 weeks has slowed nearly as much as it has in SW/W

🧭 SW/W: +259 = 5782 (-48%)🥳
🧭 Rest of Greater Syd: +87 = 2158 (-45%)🥳
🧭 Regional NSW: +183 = 3073 (+74%)🤨

*+Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)
🧭Regional NSW is the exception, so details on that first -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 428 (+29%)🤨

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +55=993 (+49%)🤨
Kiama: +0 = 6 (-73%)
Shellharbour: +5 = 167 (-9%)
Shoalhaven: +9 = 116 (142%)
Wollongong: +41 = 704 (70%)
Read 19 tweets
6 Oct
🧭VIC LGA monster wrap 🤖

Cases in last 14 days V. previous 14 days

1. North / West Metro: +94% (but growth slowing)
2. Rest of Metro: +344% (growth stable)
3. Regional VIC: +489% (growth speeding up)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…
#CovidVic #covid19vic #COVID19Aus
1/14. Chart: Hume Image
Region summary -

📍 Inner North / West: +194=2481 (82%)
📍 Outer North / West: +655=8067 (99%)
📍 Inner Melbourne: +85=945 (234%)
📍 Rest of Inner Metro : +145=1184 (329%)
📍 Rest of Outer Metro Melbourne: +256=2140 (432%)

[+Cases today=Cases last 14 days (14-day change %)]
2/
📍 Barwon South West: +10=129 (396%)
📍 Grampians: +20=85 (158%)
📍 Gippsland: +13=123 (2360%)
📍 Hume: +27=224 (600%)
📍 Loddon Mallee: +10=75 (0%)

3/
Read 14 tweets
28 Sep
NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. Southwest/Western Sydney: -34%
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +14%
3. Regional NSW: +48%

LGA details below 👇

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
1. SW/W ...

📍 Western Sydney: +189=3826 (-39%) 🥳

Blacktown: +56 = 1450 (-26%)
Cumberland: +64 = 1389 (-51%)
Parramatta: +22 = 377 (-38%)
Penrith: +47 = 610 (-30%)

*How to read the data: +Cases today = Last 14 days (14-day change %)
📍 Southwest Sydney: +244=5184 (-29%) 🥳

Camden: +8 = 287 (10%)
Campbelltown: +45 = 607 (-1%)
Canterbury-Bankstown: +101 = 2184 (-39%)
Fairfield: +34 = 776 (-30%)
Liverpool: +56 = 1330 (-25%)
Read 18 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(