Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
Digital and data journalist making https://t.co/2m0FsbhJKh for #covid19aus. Author 'This is Gail', HarperCollins. Advocacy and family @COBLH
loki maelorin πŸ³οΈβ€βš§οΈπŸ³οΈβ€πŸŒˆ πŸ’‰πŸ’‰ (they) Profile picture Denny Groth Profile picture Dr. Sonia Fullerton 😷 Profile picture Sue Tucker Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
26 Sep
NSW LGA monster wrapπŸ‘»

NSW as 3 different outbreaks: How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. SW/W: -29% (daily cases shrinking)
2. Rest of Greater Syd: +25% (daily cases growing)
3. Regional NSW: +24% (daily cases growing)

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Where daily cases are growing, is growth getting faster or slower?

Rest of Greater Sydney: Slower

14-day % change over the last week ...
+101%
+94%
+81%
+70%
+59%
+47%
+36%
+25%
Regional NSW: Faster

14-day % change over the last week ...
+2%
-3%
+2%
+2%
+4%
+14%
+18%
+24%
Read 17 tweets
25 Sep
πŸ”΅ VIC LGA monster πŸ‘» wrap

Looking at VIC as 3 different outbreaks -

North/West: +679=6497 (πŸ”Ί164%)
Rest of metro: +121=1090 (πŸ”Ί237%)
Regional VIC: +29=163 (πŸ”Ί87%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…

#covid19vic #covid19aus
πŸ“ North/West

Brimbank: +56=354 (105%) πŸ‘€
Darebin: +29=241 (39%)
Hobsons Bay: +11=195 (-11%) πŸ‘
Hume: +337=2839 (40%) πŸ‘€
Maribyrnong: +2=48 (29%)
Melton: +44=300 (75%)
Moonee Valley: +18=187 (43%)
Moreland: +49=762 (-12%) πŸ‘
Whittlesea: +74=783 (54%)
Wyndham: +32=580 (16%)
πŸ“ Rest of Metro

Banyule:+12=126 (150%) πŸ‘€
Bayside:+4=22 (114%)
Boroondara:+4=20 (200%)
Casey:+27=208 (93%) πŸ‘€
Cardinia:+6=93 (265%)
Frankston:+7=24 (600%)
Glen Eira:+0=45 (50%)
Greater Dandenong:+10=101 (35%)
Kingston:+4=39 (357%)
Knox:+4=37 (417%)
Latrobe:+3=4 (200%)
Read 7 tweets
25 Sep
Vaccine leaderboards

First doses -
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Australia: 75.4% (+0.6%)

ACT: 85.9% (+0.9%) (πŸ‘‡ more on this below )
NSW: 85.2% (+0.5%)
VIC: 76.9% (+0.6%)
TAS: 74.3% (+0.6%)
SA: 65.6% (+0.5%)
NT: 64.9% (+0.4%)
QLD: 63.4% (+1.2%)
WA: 63.0% (+0.6%)

1/5

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
Full vax -
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Australia: 50.9% (+0.8%)

ACT: 60.3% (+0.8%)
NSW: 59.2% (+1.4%)
TAS: 55.7% (+0.6%)
NT: 50.7% (+0.7%)
SA: 47.1% (+0.6%)
VIC: 47.0% (+0.4%)
WA: 44.5% (+0.6%)
QLD: 44.5% (+0.5%)

2/5
NSW recently overtook ACT on the first dose leaderboard but lost that lead today

See how ACT is still charging ahead with first doses. They burst through 80% and no sign of slowing yet

Whereas ...

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
24 Sep
⚫️ NSW LGAs monster wrap πŸ‘»

State summary -

Southwest / West Sydney: +601 = 11,102 ( -17%)πŸ‘
Rest of Greater Sydney: +370 = 4,965 (πŸ”Ί59%)
Regional NSW: +79 = 779 (πŸ”Ί5%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (+/- 14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/nsw-lgas-cases
#covid19nsw #covid19aus Image
1. Southwest / West Sydney -

πŸ“ Western Sydney: +261=4739 (-27%) πŸ‘Œ
Cumberland: +87 = 1831 (-42%) πŸ‘β˜οΈ
Parramatta: +30 = 451 (-27%)
Penrith: +46 = 684 (-21%)
Blacktown: +98 = 1770 (-5%) πŸ‘‡ Image
πŸ“ Southwest Sydney: +340=6363 (-8%) πŸ‘
Camden: +12 = 314 (23%)
Campbelltown: +46 = 648 (14%)
Canterbury-Bankstown: +123 = 2821 (-20%) πŸ‘‡
Fairfield: +54 = 887 (-18%)
Liverpool: +105 = 1692 (14%) Image
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep
πŸ”΅ VIC LGAs monster wrap πŸ‘»

Summary -

North-West: +549=6202 (πŸ”Ί192%)
Rest of Metro: +135=1002 (πŸ”Ί246%)
Regional VIC: +26=145 (πŸ”Ί67%)

Data key: +Net cases today = 14-day sum (+/- 14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…
#covid19vic #covid19aus
(Chart: Hume πŸ‘‡) Image
πŸ“ North-West LGAs -

Brimbank: +34=317 (64%)
Darebin +24=233 (22%)
Hobsons Bay: +21=198 (4%)
Hume: +237=2667 (31%) πŸ‘€
Maribyrnong: +5=48 (53%)
Melton: +31=263 (68%)
Moonee Valley: +27=177 (33%)
Moreland: +42=798 (-18%) πŸ‘
Whittlesea: +68=748 (56%) πŸ‘‡
Wyndham: +38=570 (32%) Image
πŸ“ Rest of Metro -

Banyule :+21=118 (147%)
Bayside :+0=18 (400%)
Boroondara :+4=16 (200%)
Casey :+22=183 (65%) πŸ‘‡
Cardinia :+9=88 (318%)
Frankston :+5=19 (275%)
Glen Eira :+5=43 (87%)
Greater Dandenong :+7=96 (40%)
Kingston :+4=35 (300%)
Knox :+10=34 (367%)
Latrobe :+0=1 (-100%) Image
Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap πŸ‘»(New!)

πŸ“ 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

πŸ“ˆ 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🀧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus
πŸ“ 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

πŸ“ˆ 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%
🀧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Brimbank: +45=294
Casey: +22=164
Darebin: +22=216
Hobsons Bay: +11=199
Hume: +260=2525 πŸ‘ˆ
Maribyrnong: +5=46
Melton: +29=249
Moonee Valley: +20=155
Moreland: +68=810
Whittlesea: +74=713
Wyndham: +50=575
Read 12 tweets
23 Sep
🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!πŸ‘»

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)
2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a πŸ‘‡ to see new cases below)
Read 26 tweets
5 Sep
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar πŸ€“
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘» Cases
πŸ‘ = progress
πŸ‘ˆ = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
πŸ“ Western NSW: 582, +31
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 3,+0

πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation - Total, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
πŸ“ Western NSW: 368,+9
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 78,+1
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧡- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6
VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap πŸ‘»

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
πŸ“ Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
πŸ“ Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
29 Aug
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
1/7
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

2/7
3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

3/7
Read 10 tweets
27 Aug
🧭 Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘»

Watch πŸ‘€
Note πŸ‘ˆ
Progress πŸ‘

🦠Cases show: Last 14 days, +today
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation shows: Total, +today

#COVID19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ State wrap

🦠Cases

12 LGAs of Concern: 7984, +699
Western NSW: 483, +48
Rest of Greater Sydney: 1080, +123
Hunter New England: 85, +1
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 2, +0
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation

12 LGAs of Concern: 7318, +423
Western NSW: 267, +33
Rest of Greater Sydney: 393, +40
Hunter New England: 68, +2
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Armidale/Northern Rivers: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 1, +0
Read 19 tweets
26 Aug
🧭 NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘»

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

πŸ“ 12 LOCs: 7625, +873
πŸ“ West NSW: 449, +39
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 999, +96
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 91, +1
πŸ“ Mid/Nth Coast: 2, +0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, +0
πŸ“ South NSW: 2, 0

#COVID19nsw #COVID19Aus
LHDs -
1/ Image
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +today

πŸ“ 12 LOCs: 6895, +580
πŸ“ West NSW: 234, +16
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 681, +54
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 66, +0
πŸ“ Mid/Nth Coast: 1, +0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, +0
πŸ“ South NSW: 1, +0

2/
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Cumberland: 1827, +226 πŸ‘€
Canterbury-Bankstown: 1534, +150
Blacktown: 1302, +130 πŸ‘€
Liverpool: 660, +100 πŸ‘€
Penrith: 636, +64
Fairfield: 635, +73
Parramatta: 341, +43
Campbelltown: 296, +37
Bayside: 159, +24

3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
21 Aug
🧭 NSW late-night LGA monster wrap πŸ‘» (bumper Fri / Sat edition)

πŸ‘ˆ= of note
πŸ‘€= watch closely
πŸ‘ = progress

1/

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Fri, +Sat)
12 LGAs of concern: 5390, +543, +651
Western NSW: 237, +29, +50
Rest of Greater Sydney: 674, +56, +108
Hunter New England: 139, +1, +1
Armidale / Northern Rivers: 4, +0, +0
Mid-North Coast: 4, +2, +1
Southern NSW: 2, +0, +1

2/
πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +Fri, +Sat)
12 LGAs of concern: 4498, +332, +480
Western NSW: 121, +13, +28
Rest of Greater Sydney: 447, +36, +65
Hunter New England: 63, +0, -1
Armidale / Northern Rivers: 1, +0, +0
Mid-North Coast: 2, +0, +1
Southern NSW: 1, +0, -1

3/
Read 20 tweets
21 Aug
I've been wanting to look at some relevant data behind the new NSW restrictions

1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern
2. Surveillance testing scrapped
3. Mandatory outdoor masks
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #sydneyprotest
1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern (includes curfew and 1-hr exercise limit)

A few of us have been trying to show the huge Covid burden in certain communities for a while

Here's a new attempt. This chart shows daily cases in each LGA as a percentage of total cases that day
The big yellow one is Fairfield, Cumberland is purple, Canterbury-Bankstown is green

Below, all 12 LGAs of concern are removed

You can see in the last 5 weeks, they've accounted for about 90% of NSW cases (changed a bit recently - orange top right is Dubbo)
Read 12 tweets
19 Aug
🧭 Another late night for the NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘»

πŸ“ 12 LGAs of concern
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney
πŸ“ Western NSW
πŸ“ Hunter New England
πŸ“ Armidale / Northern Rivers
πŸ“ Mid-North Coast
πŸ“ Southern NSW

1/

πŸ‘ˆ= of note
πŸ‘€= watch closely

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
⚫️ State summary

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

- 12 LGAs of concern: 4755, +590
- Rest of Greater Sydney: 565, +48
- Western NSW: 158*, +25 πŸ‘€
- Hunter New England: 147, +5
- Armidale / Northern Rivers: 4, +0
- Mid-North Coast: 1, +1 πŸ‘ˆ
- Southern NSW: 1, +1 πŸ‘ˆ

2/

*endnote
πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

- 12 LGAs of concern: 3686, +350 πŸ‘€
- Rest of Greater Sydney: 345, +14
- Western NSW: 80, +5
- Hunter New England: 64, +5
- Armidale / Northern Rivers: 1, +0
- Mid-North Coast: 1, +1πŸ‘ˆ
- Southern NSW: 2, +1πŸ‘ˆ

3/
Read 23 tweets
19 Aug
Re: Pressure on contact tracing

Percentage of cases interviewed within 24 hours of notification has fallen to 82%

1/3

#covid19nsw #covid19aus Image
In past weeks, this has been revised upwards (grey line becomes yellow)

That has not happened this week, which doesn't bode well for the 76% figure at the end (TBC next week)

2/3
NSW Health has said that this metric relates to the *full* interview. Where cases can't have their full interview within the target time period, they are contacted for a short interview to attain -
- medical status
- close contacts
- reinforce need to isolate
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug
QLD Premier celebrates 'double donut day'

No new local or Hotel Quarantine cases

- 38,000 Aussies stranded OS
- 'Just fly business class so you don't get bumped' = IRE>SYD $15,000
> 50 OS Aussies died of Covid inc citizens trying to get home

Nothing to celebrate

#covid19aus
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
Yesterday, the NSW Premier said the state's Reff was 1.3

On today's front page, @smh showed what that really means

The paper also called out thousands of mystery cases, which are fuelling outbreaks across NSW and in other states

1/5

#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
In general, I avoid projections like ... the plague (sorry)

But I've realised simply reporting the Reff fails a principle of data journalism - to unpack the data's implications

This lesson is thanks to the very clever tweeps I talk to here and the reporting of @normanswan

2/5
With 470 cases / day (avg), seemingly small variations in the Reff lead to disastrously different outcomes

3/5
Read 6 tweets