How many people are in NSW hospitals *with* Covid but not *for* Covid?

The Daily Telegraph says it's 40-50% of patients

I have data from 2 major hospitals that tell a different story

🧵 1/9

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19 I asked clinicians from 4 big hospitals for an analysis of a random sample of currently admitted Covid patients

2 could help🙏

Both had very similar breakdowns:

~76-80% of Covid patients admitted *for* Covid illness
~20-24% admitted *with* Covid but for something else

2/9

🚨 Those NSW hospitalisation numbers are >24 hrs behind and the situation is changing fast

ICU / ventilation increases this morning:

63 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 1
69 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 2
78 / 24 - Patient Flow Portal early AM
80 / 28 - PFP 10.20AM

#covid19aus #COVID19nsw So from 8PM last night to mid-morning today ...

ICU patients have increased 16%
Ventilated patients have increased 47%

It is a huge jump

Both Omicron and Delta are circulating widely and feeding these numbers

*There are people with both variants in ICU*

NSW has deflected responsibility for the massive pressures on the pathology system by focusing public attention on QLD's tourism testing

But in fact sheer case load is also a major factor affecting the testing system's capacity

Quick🧵1/6

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #CovidTesting Prof Dwyer has confirmed NSW pathology labs use the 'pooling' process outlined by the Reddit thread

Pooling is supposed to help the system process large numbers of samples

Eg. Test 4 samples as a group

Negative? Move on

Positive? Go back and test each sample individually

2/6

🧭 NSW LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 diff outbreaks:

1. Southwest / West Syd: +162 = 4414 (-51%)
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +50 = 1513 (-56%)
3. Regional NSW: +137 = 3064 (+36%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details 👇
#covid19nsw #covid19aus Regional NSW -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 410 (10%) 😏

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +31=851 (-3%) 😃

Kiama: +0 = 3 (-84%)
Shellharbour: +14 = 153 (-21%)
Shoalhaven: +3 = 121 (55%)
Wollongong: +14 = 574 (-2%)

🧭 VIC LGAs late-night monster wrap 👻

VIC as 3 different outbreaks:

1. North/West Metro: +867 = 13,050 (+82%)
2. Rest of Metro: +479 = 6,670 (+352%)
3. Regional VIC: +110 = 1,190 (+441%)

Data: Cases today = 14-day sum (% 14-day change)

LGA details👇

#COVID19Vic #covid19aus 1. North/West Metro (original growth areas) -

📍 North Melbourne: +511=7807 (50%) 😏

Banyule: +24=325 (102%)
Darebin: +53=686 (144%)
Hume: +203=3589 (17%) 👏
Moreland: +63=1135 (46%)
Nillumbik: +6=85 (325%)
Whittlesea: +162=1987 (116%)

Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw 1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration

🧭 NSW LGA dataset updated today after yday was skipped

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - I've made a change to this summary based on feedback (ty @k_eagar)

Central Coast / Illawarra Shoalhaven moved from Greater Sydney to regional NSW. This means ...

#covid19nsw #covid19aus The perspective on growth in Greater Syd changes - growth in last 2 weeks has slowed nearly as much as it has in SW/W

🧭 SW/W: +259 = 5782 (-48%)🥳
🧭 Rest of Greater Syd: +87 = 2158 (-45%)🥳
🧭 Regional NSW: +183 = 3073 (+74%)🤨

*+Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)

🧭VIC LGA monster wrap 🤖

Cases in last 14 days V. previous 14 days

1. North / West Metro: +94% (but growth slowing)
2. Rest of Metro: +344% (growth stable)
3. Regional VIC: +489% (growth speeding up)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…
#CovidVic #covid19vic #COVID19Aus
1/14. Chart: Hume Region summary -

📍 Inner North / West: +194=2481 (82%)
📍 Outer North / West: +655=8067 (99%)
📍 Inner Melbourne: +85=945 (234%)
📍 Rest of Inner Metro : +145=1184 (329%)
📍 Rest of Outer Metro Melbourne: +256=2140 (432%)

[+Cases today=Cases last 14 days (14-day change %)]
2/

NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. Southwest/Western Sydney: -34%
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +14%
3. Regional NSW: +48%

LGA details below 👇

#covid19nsw #covid19aus 1. SW/W ...

📍 Western Sydney: +189=3826 (-39%) 🥳

Blacktown: +56 = 1450 (-26%)
Cumberland: +64 = 1389 (-51%)
Parramatta: +22 = 377 (-38%)
Penrith: +47 = 610 (-30%)

*How to read the data: +Cases today = Last 14 days (14-day change %)

Re: Testing positivity rates in NSW / VIC / ACT

Testing in NSW is falling - but so is the positivity rate

3 weeks ago, NSW was testing ~130,000 ppl/day. Positivity reached 1.1%

Today, NSW testing just under 120,000 / day.* Positivity: 0.83%

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19Vic *I calculate the positivity rate by:
% = 7-day avg tests / 7-day avg cases

I think this smoothed rate is slightly more reliable than a daily rate

It shows the trend and eliminates factors like daily volatility, weekend effect, possibly mismatched numerators/denominators

NSW LGA monster wrap👻

NSW as 3 different outbreaks: How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. SW/W: -29% (daily cases shrinking)
2. Rest of Greater Syd: +25% (daily cases growing)
3. Regional NSW: +24% (daily cases growing)

#covid19nsw #covid19aus Where daily cases are growing, is growth getting faster or slower?

Rest of Greater Sydney: Slower

14-day % change over the last week ...
+101%
+94%
+81%
+70%
+59%
+47%
+36%
+25%

🔵 VIC LGA monster 👻 wrap

Looking at VIC as 3 different outbreaks -

North/West: +679=6497 (🔺164%)
Rest of metro: +121=1090 (🔺237%)
Regional VIC: +29=163 (🔺87%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…

#covid19vic #covid19aus 📍 North/West

Brimbank: +56=354 (105%) 👀
Darebin: +29=241 (39%)
Hobsons Bay: +11=195 (-11%) 👍
Hume: +337=2839 (40%) 👀
Maribyrnong: +2=48 (29%)
Melton: +44=300 (75%)
Moonee Valley: +18=187 (43%)
Moreland: +49=762 (-12%) 👍
Whittlesea: +74=783 (54%)
Wyndham: +32=580 (16%)

Vaccine leaderboards

First doses -
🇦🇺 Australia: 75.4% (+0.6%)

ACT: 85.9% (+0.9%) (👇 more on this below )
NSW: 85.2% (+0.5%)
VIC: 76.9% (+0.6%)
TAS: 74.3% (+0.6%)
SA: 65.6% (+0.5%)
NT: 64.9% (+0.4%)
QLD: 63.4% (+1.2%)
WA: 63.0% (+0.6%)

1/5

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw Full vax -
🇦🇺 Australia: 50.9% (+0.8%)

ACT: 60.3% (+0.8%)
NSW: 59.2% (+1.4%)
TAS: 55.7% (+0.6%)
NT: 50.7% (+0.7%)
SA: 47.1% (+0.6%)
VIC: 47.0% (+0.4%)
WA: 44.5% (+0.6%)
QLD: 44.5% (+0.5%)

2/5

⚫️ NSW LGAs monster wrap 👻

State summary -

Southwest / West Sydney: +601 = 11,102 ( -17%)👍
Rest of Greater Sydney: +370 = 4,965 (🔺59%)
Regional NSW: +79 = 779 (🔺5%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (+/- 14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/nsw-lgas-cases
#covid19nsw #covid19aus 1. Southwest / West Sydney -

📍 Western Sydney: +261=4739 (-27%) 👌
Cumberland: +87 = 1831 (-42%) 👏☝️
Parramatta: +30 = 451 (-27%)
Penrith: +46 = 684 (-21%)
Blacktown: +98 = 1770 (-5%) 👇

🔵 VIC LGAs monster wrap 👻

Summary -

North-West: +549=6202 (🔺192%)
Rest of Metro: +135=1002 (🔺246%)
Regional VIC: +26=145 (🔺67%)

Data key: +Net cases today = 14-day sum (+/- 14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…
#covid19vic #covid19aus
(Chart: Hume 👇) 📍 North-West LGAs -

Brimbank: +34=317 (64%)
Darebin +24=233 (22%)
Hobsons Bay: +21=198 (4%)
Hume: +237=2667 (31%) 👀
Maribyrnong: +5=48 (53%)
Melton: +31=263 (68%)
Moonee Valley: +27=177 (33%)
Moreland: +42=798 (-18%) 👍
Whittlesea: +68=748 (56%) 👇
Wyndham: +38=570 (32%)

🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap 👻(New!)

📍 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

📈 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🤧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus 📍 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%

🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!👻

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw 1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)

So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...

'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓

🧭NSW LGA monster wrap 👻 Cases
👍 = progress
👈 = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
📍 Western NSW: 582, +31
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
📍 Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus 📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 3,+0

🔎Under Investigation - Total, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
📍 Western NSW: 368,+9
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
📍 Hunter New England: 78,+1

NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6