Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19aus

Most recents (24)

1) "Australian Bureau of Statistics" has released their recent numbers for Provisional mortality till June 2022.

Key statistics:
In 2022, there were 92,699 deaths that occurred by 30 June and were registered by 31 August, which is 13,524 (17.1%) more than the historical average. Image
2) In June there were 16,749 deaths, 2,410 (16.8%) above the historical average.

Deaths due to COVID-19 increased in July when compared with May and June.


In Australia, 98.2% of people aged 16+ with at least 1 dose, 96.5% of people aged 16+ with 2 doses, 71.8% of people aged 16+ with 3 doses AND deaths due to COVID-19 increased in JULY?

Read 5 tweets
The NSW epi report for the week ending 10 Sept is now out. Note that this is the week ending just before they switched from daily to weekly reporting, so nothing new on that front.
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...…
Cases are down another 29% this week. Excellent.
While PCR testing is down again (-15%), so is positivity (at 7% this week). Good.
Read 13 tweets
The NSW Health weekly epi report for the week ending 27 August came out today.
Short thread this week/
#covid19Aus #covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...…
Only a few highlights this week as trajectories haven't changed, and I'm a bit fried after the excess deaths stuff this week:
- cases are down 21% and all age groups moving similarly; good
- PCR testing is down, but positivity rate is also down; good
- hospital admissions down 15%; excellent. The biggest % fall we've seen in a long time
- people in hospital down 6%; good. Hopefully this % will be even bigger next week as the lower admissions flow through
- 126 deaths; never good. But the lowest number in the seven weeks
Read 4 tweets
Our latest estimates of excess deaths are out, covering all cause mortality to the end of May 2022, plus COVID-19 only mortality for Jun-Aug.
#COVID19Aus #excessdeaths
TLDR: +8,500 excess deaths in 5 months to May (12%)…
Note our excess deaths are measured relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality.
Includes allowance for continuation of mortality improvement/decline for each cause of death.
Allows for changes in the size and age composition of the population.
Another month of huge excess deaths in May. Only one week in 2022 to date has been within our 95% confidence interval
Read 20 tweets
The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 20 Aug came out today, and it looks pretty similar to last week.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...…
Cases are down another 27% this week, and are now at a similar level to the trough before the BA.4/5 wave took off.
PCR testing is down, and so is the positivity rate. Good.
Read 14 tweets
This mammoth thread from the UK came out last night. Here are my thoughts, and some comments on Australia.
A thread/
Nerd alert: I am massively happy to see age standardisation used in the methodology to estimate excess deaths.
This is a major flaw in the ABS commentary on its Provisional Mortality Statistics. Its "baseline" makes no allowance for population changes.
[I'm on an Actuaries Institute working group that has a specific focus on the mortality impacts of the pandemic. You can find out latest here.]
Read 20 tweets
I’m not sure ‘people alive and healthy’ could be bettered as a mission statement for a society. Look at this excess deaths graph (thanks @KarenCutter4) and try to isolate what it was we stopped doing in 2020/21, that we started doing again in 2022. /1 #auspol #covid19aus
My hunch is the dominant answer would be ‘we stopped functioning as an economy and this surge of good health was unsustainable, funded by government debt’. Unfortunately facts get in the way of that good story. Yes a big dip right at the start of the pandemic, but growth then…/2
…easily surpassing what we had *before* the pandemic. And this during two years of what idiots call our ‘lockdown’, when the economy was apparently under mortal threat. Remember this schematic, all that white space where we weren’t ’locked down’? Lockdowns were only needed…/3
Read 10 tweets
Our latest on excess deaths in Australia, covering all cause mortality to 30 April, plus excess from COVID-19 only to 31 July.
TLDR: 13% excess (+6,800 deaths) Jan-Apr 22.
8% excess (+3,500 deaths) from Covid only May-July.
Covid third leading cause of death in 2022.
Total excess mortality for the month of April 2022 estimated at 9% (+1,200 deaths).
More than half is due to doctor-certified COVID-19 deaths. Other unspecified causes and coroner-referred deaths (which include some COVID-19 deaths) also made a significant contribution.
With January at 20% excess mortality, February at 15% and March at 7%, this takes total excess mortality for the first four months of 2022 to 13% (+6,800 deaths).
Read 14 tweets
In advance of our work on excess deaths coming out in the next day or so, and with quite a few new followers, I thought I'd do a thread on how we calculate our baseline predicted values for 2022, and how these compare to what the ABS uses.
What did we do? We used ABS standardised death rates (SDRs) for each cause of death as the basis of our projections. The SDRs allow for changes in both population size and age mix. We built in trends for mortality improvement. We then converted that back to numbers of deaths.
What do ABS do? They use the average number of deaths in 2017-19+21 without any adjustment for population changes or trend.
Read 15 tweets
Australia's household solar dominance has some critical messages for personal responsibility public health. A short thread about how we're being played again and again by spin and slogans. /1 #auspol #covid19aus…
Australians have gone gangbusters over rooftop solar. Their personal responsibility for it is the same as it is for most community-focused projects, world-leading. Governments got the ball rolling with generous rebates and tariffs, but this is where the story shifts. /2
Government incentives (feed-in tariffs in particular) have been gradually wound back over time, until sometimes people are now blocked from exporting any excess energy to the grid at all. This is largely because governments didn't do their personal responsibility bit.../3
Read 12 tweets
Public health paradoxes. Where we use ‘personal choice’ in banking, or supermarkets etc., despite the ideology of choice everything coagulates into a handful of monopolies. Give people ‘freedom’ and they *always* reinstate hierarchy. Why? /1 #covid19aus…
Because the default state of society is social interaction. And social interaction is created by imitation, by status. We all look for leadership, for a hierarchy of value in which to assess the decisions confronting us. The idea of a free-floating individual making choices…/2
…is a fantasy. The only place it exists is that persecuted, bullied outsider on the fringe of groups. And even that person’s life is dominated by exclusion from that same social group. Public health has to be led, like anything we do in society. If it’s not led, people will…/3
Read 5 tweets
@Mark_Butler_MP on RN again this morning, and he and @PatsKarvelas, @David_Speers and @samanthamaiden all missed the obvious solution to Covid. The problem is the solution, as Bill Mollison used to say. /1

#auspol #COVID19Aus
Australia (and the world) will never escape this pandemic until we abandon our root strategy, to 'minimise severe disease'. That's a hospital management strategy, or as I call it, a public disease (rather than public health) strategy. /2
It directly causes the infection of the entire population, over and over. It makes the public sick, potentially permanently. A total collapse and failure of public health responsibilities, we don't manage any other infectious disease in this way,.../3
Read 11 tweets
We need to talk about freedom I think. It's the lead weight in the Covid saddlebags. A🧵on why Daniel Defoe may be the weapon we need to fight those who won't fight Covid. /1 #auspol #covid19aus
Watching the UK leadership race reminded me of all the same core beliefs the current political class have used to also undermine Covid action. Every Tory lining up to replace Boris pledges to 'free' people from the tyranny of the State. /2
This is the core belief that has shaped our politics globally for over 50 years. That States and their regulations and taxes 'restrict freedom'. You need to challenge this core belief, because the slaves to this belief are easily replaced, if you only attack the person. /3
Read 13 tweets
Longish quote about Marek's Diseases in chickens in next few Tweets, and then I wanted to ask those who understand vaccines if the Covid vaccines are 'leaky' in this same way, with the same possible consequences? (Thanks to @iko_iko11 and Wikipedia). /1 #COVID19Aus
"Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected for by evolution. This is because such a severe strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent..."/2
"...strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains." /3
Read 6 tweets
📋National case overview - COVID-19
4th July 2022
📈AUS - Daily case rate (7-day average)
📈AUS - Daily hospitalised rate (7-day average)
Read 12 tweets
📋National case overview - COVID-19
3rd July 2022
📈AUS - Daily case rate (7-day average)
📈AUS - Daily hospitalised rate (7-day average)
Read 11 tweets
📋National case overview - COVID-19
2nd July 2022
#COVID19Aus Image
📈AUS - Daily case rate (7-day average) Image
📈AUS - Daily hospitalised rate (7-day average) Image
Read 11 tweets
What makes it possible for governments to ignore public health processes in a pandemic is the suppression of information about what’s really going on. A short thread about strategy, about taking our society back. /1 #auspol #covid19aus
All Covid data is depersonalised, then calculated and re-calculated in ways to minimise the scale of what’s going on. The testing that generates the data is undermined or removed entirely, or made user-pays, to suppress the magnitude of the numbers. /2
All of the maths, all of the descriptive language, is spun by strategists to minimise the sense anything serious is happening at all. At no time is it permitted to link the data back to the human reality producing it. Just as ‘economic’ data deliberately hides the political… /3
Read 7 tweets
The greatest political sleight of hand in Australian history. The dominant narrative about Australia and Covid is that we ‘locked down’ for nearly 2 years, and then we ‘opened up’ to ‘living with the virus’. Let’s look at the facts. /1 #auspol #covid19aus Image
It’s a beautiful schematic, from the ABS, showing the ‘lockdowns’ in Australia. What should jump out at you is that we spent most of the past two years not locked down at all. Look at all that white space. And the ‘NSW Lockdown’ was only some suburbs of one city, mostly. /2 Image
Politicians deliberately conflated lockdowns with basic public health action, like contact tracing and the suppression of individual localised outbreaks. I’m sure I’m not the only one who remembers living through most of this time with my ‘freedoms’ mostly unaffected. /3 Image
Read 10 tweets
🧵 I’m writing to my local state and federal MPs because I’m worried about the level of covid cases in the community. I’ve made some templates, to make it easy for you to do the same.
If enough of us speak up, we will be heard. Copy and paste these into an email, or make a PDF to email (click file: make a copy).
Here’s one to expand on, using your own circumstances and concerns.
Read 16 tweets
1/5 Now ain't this about right...! Image
2/5 Truth Squashed Image
#COVID19nz #COVID19Aus

The truth..
SQUASHED and IGNORED by @chrishipkins and cohorts Image
Read 4 tweets
THIS IS NOT AN ANTI VAX POST about the NZ government corporation but an ANTI HYPOCRISY, ANTI MISinformation peddling and ANTI LIARS statement as the govt (all of them irrelevant of party), are sanctimonious hypocritical, misinfo spreading LIARS.

#COVID19nz #nzpol #COVID19Aus
👆 includes the NZ MSM, Muck Spreading Media machine @NewshubNZ @NewsroomNZ @Breakfaston1 @MutchJessica @WendyPetrieTVNZ

What the hell were you doing wearing TWO FACE NAPPIES @marcdaalder ?
You live in fear, what a sad life

Masks will be known as the symbol of STUPIDITY
For the totally brainwashed fear ridden double face nappy wearer👆

Or maybe the double masking idiocy was all for SHOW and DRAMATICS for your brainwashed sheeple Marc?

A few corrections of his OLD Twitter profile. WHY'D YOU REMOVE YOUR "VACCINATE" TAG Marc Harris Leonardus?
Read 8 tweets
On this day exactly one year ago I fell seriously ill in the evening. I had a severe headache, nausea, vertigo, and most worryingly, I couldn’t stop vomiting. My wife called the Health Direct line, and in the end an ambulance was called for me. 🧵 (1/n)
Despite trying to not overburden the ambulance and health care system, the nurse of the Health Direct line called the ambulance because I was suffering from stroke-like symptoms. The ambulance arrived promptly; I guess I was lucky not be be sick last week… (2/n)
In hospital I was assessed to see if I had a stroke. I somehow passed the neurological assessment but I had the worst headache, nausea and vertigo I have ever experienced. Those anti-nausea wafers that stop you vomiting are worth their weight in gold! (3/n)
Read 29 tweets
Data continues to get worse for the net effectiveness of #COVID19uk vaccines.

Vaccinated 60-69 yr-old's are almost 5x more as likely to be #COVID19 infected.

Vaccinated 30-69 yr-old's are 2-3 times more likely to become infected & die, than the unvaccinated.

#COVID19aus ImageImageImageImage
Latest UKHSA data shows:

Vaccinated 18-79 year old's are between 3-5 times more likely to be infected by #COVID19, than those who remain unvaccinated.

This makes it clear that VACCINES ARE damaging the immune system and are INCREASING INFECTION RATES!

#COVID19uk #COVID19aus ImageImage
Vaccinated 18+ year old's are between 2.1-3.6 times more likely to be infected and hospitalised with #COVID19, than those who remain unvaccinated.

This makes it clear that VACCINES ARE damaging the immune system and are INCREASING HOSPITALISATION RATES!

#COVID19uk #COVID19aus ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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