Ryan O'Farrell Profile picture
Non-state actors and conflicts / mostly East Africa / Ohioan / Defections Operations Coordinator at the Bridgeway Foundation / @SAISHopkins alum

Sep 6, 2021, 11 tweets

Leaning *very* heavily on @hengenahm's amazing work, this is as best I can figure the situation in #Panjshir: Taliban overran NRF mountaintop positions (dark green) and crossed the mountains above Gulbahar, giving them access to the valley, then moved troops as far up as Tawakh

Well, looks like the Taliban have taken the Panjshir governor's office in Barazak. Judging by the sun, this footage was taken around 12:30pm

"A senior official of the NRF...confirmed that the Taliban had taken over. 'Yes, Panjshir has fallen'...Ahmad Massoud, is 'at [a] safe place' the official said, adding that Amrullah Saleh...had fled for Tajikistan."washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/…

Geolocating some older footage from last month in Baghlan as local militias in Andarab, Dehsalah and Pul-e-Hesar districts threw out what few Taliban fighters were there, and were then quickly overwhelmed by the Taliban's response. Baghlan revolts lasted about 48 hours.

Journalists blocked from entering Panjshir

Video from Sept 2 seems pretty instructive on how the Taliban entered Panjshir by infiltrating side valleys and then crossing the mountains, basically flanking the NRF's defensive positions

Other Sept 3 photos show how Taliban fighters seized one mountaintop, likely enabling them to suppress NRF fighters on another and advance through the river valley below; this valley then gave access to flank NRF and enter the main Panjshir valley

(Just to be clear, dates are approximate, usually based on the date that the source I'm quoting posts them)

Video posted today show a Taliban convoy just northeast of Khenj, driving southeast towards Bazarak from the direction of Paryan. Almost certainly means that the Taliban holds the entire central Panjshir valley

*southwest

Sun's position indicates that this morning's video of the Taliban convoy in Khenj was taken around 6am

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