As we start a new week, let's check in to see what's on the menu down in the tropics.
-#Larry recurves into the North Atlantic, perhaps brushing NL.
-#91L may still develop but probably not until it moves east of FL.
-New Caribbean wave to watch.
-Maybe a new EATL storm.
Right now, of the three storms that have yet to develop, the new Caribbean system probably deserves the most scrutiny.
It will form in a manner similar to Ida and 91L, which means it could either become an impactful storm or wander west into Central America.
#91L isn't looking too hot this morning given the wind shear and dry air we've been talking about for several days.
We'll watch to see if any circulation might be able to form under the deeper convection that has been popping up this morning due west of Key West.
#91L's forward speed is much less certain than its general track, which will be set by a trough digging through the Central US.
It's now pretty clear 91L is headed ENE over Florida into the Atlantic, just dunno how fast.
If it develops, low-mod TS still seems like the ceiling.
Out in the far eastern Atlantic, ECMWF/EPS forecasts showing development of a closed tropical cyclone over Mauritania are the result of a pretty well-known bias in the model leading to erroneous TCG over land.
GEFS forecast of quick development offshore is much more realistic.
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