Thread by @GBGabBrunner

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN SPAIN THIS SUMMER?? In this thread I will use official sources and try to make sense of Covid in Spain in the summer of 2021. We look at the "5th wave" and the "Wave of the Youth" - all myths propagated by media - as well as the injection programme.

Spain previously suffered quite a bit from Covid, but only in specific periods and in certain regions. It seems that the different climates in the Spanish regions led to localized outbreaks at different times, but of similar duration. momo.isciii.es/public/momo/da…

Observe how most regions had one big wave of excess mortality, then nothing since, while some have 2 (those who got the small one first)

Several regions have no excess death at all. The point is, all this behaviour is predictable, not unexpected and totally natural.

And you can see how many regions have NOT had a #covid problem for more than a year. Still, restrictions and masks remained. So, you will ask, why are we talking about a "fifth wave"?

Well, because the Spanish are surfers and love waves?

No, but the problem is, when we lay all regional curves on top of each other, we get this artefact. You see? The Spanish curve is an illusion. You can't merge different regions. But government+media used each wave to scare the WHOLE COUNTRY. So simple - and so effective.

So, ufff - the "fifth wave" - are you still listening? Look at the news here:
"The Delta wave - the young wave?" "20% of the youth will have long Covid" "Ministry fearing a 6th (!) wave because of street partying"

Is this true? Is there a fifth wave, and is it the fault of the party-goers? Let's investigate. First, we have more cases but how many tests? What's the positivity rate? See below for the wave of "cases". That was quite a peak!

But cases depend on the number of tests. If we have the number of tests we can determine the positivity rate. Strange, stats end on 26th Aug - because #spain no longer published the number of tests after that. Getting suspicious?

@plaforscience managed to calculate the number of tests himself from hard-to-access official data, and found that the number of cases follows the number of tests EXACTLY.

Which means positivity is roughly the same across age groups, and the YOUTH WAVE was created by... you guessed it, TESTING KIDS LIKE CRAZY - that's all there is to it.

So the YOUTH WAVE is... a lie. Kids partied the summer away, finally took off their masks, and nothing happened.

As for the 5th wave, and the small resurgence of Covid deaths - what happened there? It is true that Spain has had excess deaths overall, and more than last year, as @chgefaell points out...

For the world's most vaccinated country, this is not a good look. @chgefaell also makes the important observation that the vast majority of excess deaths are not attributed to #covid. So what are they?

Actually even those attributed to #covid could very easily be misattributed. @plaforscience explains that within 90 (!) days of a positive test, you are counted as a Covid death in Spain.

This means that clearly, a much larger percentage of excess death is NOT #covid. Below, also note the age distribution of excess deaths. It is unchanged from last year. Another dent into the "youth wave" theory.

So, what happened this summer? With regard to #covid, NADA. Not much at all. The "Youth Wave" is a fantasy. An invention. And most of the "covid" deaths probably wasn't covid at all.

But what about the excess death? What are these people dying from? FEWER people should be dying. We're in the second year and in the middle of summer. And death among the elderly should be much less, after the disastrous last year. (reverse dry tinder).

Could it be the heat? Spain has a system for this. momo.isciii.es/momotemp/#sect… The table below shows the probability of death due to heat per region, with high percentages in several regions.

And yes, it's been a hot summer. But so much hotter than last year? I think not. Our big question remains unanswered. Why is there so much excess death in the most injected country in the world, when only a small part is covid - possibly almost nothing at all.

Could it be that a year of mask wearing and isolation are taking their toll? We'll keep investigating. Please share this update widely and leave your comments and questions below!

Let me know what you think! @FatEmperor @ChakNorris93 @ChGefaell @plaforscience @MichaelPSenger @MLevitt_NP2013 @NickHudsonCT @PanData19 @B33Mello @biddle_leo @Royce_P_Jacob @ClareCraigPath @DrJBhattacharya @MartinKulldorff

I'm adding this simple graphic to illustrate how incidence rate depends solely on testing. You can make any age group out to be irresponsible by testing them like crazy. Thanks @plaforscience