Thread by @marcgarlasco

Thoughts on the #Dronestrike in #Kabul that killed an #Afghan family. For background I was the Chief of High Value Targeting on the Joint Staff 2002-03, led UN war crimes investigations in #Afghanistan in 2011, and in 2015 assisted in a study of airstrikes while deployed on the

USS Theodore Roosevelt while working for @CNA_org. There are two types of airstrikes - deliberate and dynamic. Deliberate are planned long in advance, have numerous checks, use a pattern of life analysis, and have a relatively low incident of civilian casualties. Dynamic strikes,

such as Time Sensitive Targeting, are when the attacker has a small window of opportunity to engage a mobile target that is of high value. In a TST there is rarely time for a pattern of life analysis, structured collateral damage estimate, and all the checks normally conducted.

For Iraq I recommended many dozens of deliberate targets before switching to dynamic targeting where I participated in 50 TST targeting Saddam Hussein. All 50 failed to kill the target. Most killed only civilians. For most of these strikes the targeted individual was not present.

I have analyzed many dozens of US airstrikes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. and worked with the US to improve their practices. Unfortunately there seem to be several problems with this strike. First, they were looking for a white Toyota Corolla, among the most common

vehicles in all of Afghanistan. This is not the first time I have seen this exact signature lead to civilian deaths in Afghanistan. Also, the US was likely out for blood. The loss of 13 US service members needed to be avenged. I am concerned this likely influenced the decision by

the Target Engagement Authority to authorize this strike, particularly when it appears to have been built on a rather thin veneer of intelligence. There was no pattern of life analysis (per Gen McKenzie) that could have determined this was a civilian residence. The Collateral

Damage Estimate was likely VERY minimal though they did use the proper weapon. The Hellfire has a very small warhead and depending on which variant was used they often need to add a fragmentation sleeve because it does not have widespread effects.

We continue to see TSTs lead to #CIVCAS that then are never investigated. I recommend the suspension of TSTs until a thorough review of the tactics, techniques, and procedures as well as a wholesale change to how the US investigates and responds to civilian harm it causes.

The US Congress earmarks $3 Million ANNUALLY for ex gratia payments to war victims. In 2021 the US paid out ZERO dollars among all of the incidents it investigated. These investigations are also flawed as they do not investigate the site of the strike, do not talk to victims and

witnesses, rarely take into account info from NGOs or other orgs like the UN, and instead rely on the intelligence that led to the strike thus reinforcing their original determination. There is no accountability. Nothing seems to change. This strike has had closer scrutiny ONLY

because the world was watching and the @nytimes crew including @mattaikins conducted an investigation at the site. I have investigated dozens of such strikes where families were never contacted, never learned why their family members were killed, and received no condolences.

There are hundreds of families in numerous countries that will never have closure until the US changes course. There will be more such strikes and more dead in the future unless we reassess these attacks and implement much needed changes. We can do better. We must do better.