Thread by @YanQinyq

On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework.

On the eve of #COP26, and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE:

🧵thread:

This doc is released by the Communist Party of China and General Office of the State Council:
gov.cn/zhengce/2021-1…

It is dated 22 September, and titled 'Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality'

This official policy document (the Opinions as above) is the 'top-level design' in China's '1+N' policy framework, i.e. the 1⃣

The N will be gradually released, consisting of Carbon peak action plan and detailed sectoral roadmaps

How important is the 1⃣+N?

China's new carbon neutrality top-level design document lays the roadmap for the country achieving carbon neutrality in all sectors and fields,

So, this will affect ALL OF 🇨🇳social-economic and energy policies in next 40 years.

Xinhua news summarized FIVE key targets in the Top-level design doc:

🍀Green Low carbon circular development economic system
🏭Enhance energy efficiency
☀️Increase non-fossil share
📉Reduce CO2 emissions' level
🌲Improve carbon sinks

The official English version of Top-level design document is available now:

'Working guidance for carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality in full and faithful implementation of the new development philosophy'

news.cn/english/2021-1…

The doc set out key climate targets, broadly in line with what's announced last Dec., 14th FYP etc.

2025: Energy intensity -13.5%, CO2 intensity -18%
2030: CO2 intens. -65% vs 2005, 25% non-fossil, Wind&Solar 1200GW

The >80% non-fossil share by 2060 is NEW

In addition to above, Top-level design also mentioned absolute emissions:
'establish a system to control the total volume of CO2 emissions'

Since China will peak CO2 emissions before 2030, it is inevitable to switching from current intensity targets to Cap

On fossil-fuel consumption, the Top-level design doc stressed:

'strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan period and phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, when petroleum consumption will reach its peak plateau'

Law on Carbon Neutrality is mentioned too in the doc.

China will 'conducting research on formulating a specific law on carbon neutrality'

It also has a separate point on Green Finance (which shall come as part of the N doc)

and low-carbon Fund:
'We need to carry out exploratory work on establishing a national fund for low-carbon transformation. '

China's new top-level design of Carbon Neutrality framework stressed carbon pricing and carbon market:

-Set up a rational binding mechanism for carbon pricing
-Accelerate national ETS
-Carbon sink trading will be incorporated into #CNETS

#OCTT

China's new carbon neutrality top-level document may also imply further acceleration in power sector reform, following the recent power tariff reform on 12 Oct.

'advance market-oriented reforms in the electric power sector across the board'

The final point in #carbonneutral top-level design lands on oversight:

'All local authorities must build targets for CO2 peaking and carbon neutrality and incorporate them into their comprehensive assessment systems for economic and social development '

Overall, this is the new blueprint for China's 2030/2060 climate pledges.

It sets:
1 Guiding Principle
5 Working guidelines
measures in 10 areas
31 key tasks

It will be followed by Carbon Peak Action Plan and a series of sectoral roadmaps

So, China finally released the official top-level design of carbon peak and neutrality framework.

This does not contain new NDC or targets, but the significance of this top-level design is that it is the guideline for all upcoming climate policies:

The top-level design document has already been distributed to provincial governments late September for further implementation, and officially released on 24 October.

Check out @RefinitivCarbon media release by our analysts in Beijing:

Will China's current energy crunch affect its climate commitments?

2030/2060 pledge is now written in the top-level design, so unlikely to be impacted.

BUT with policymakers having to prioritize energy security at the moment, near term target could be...

At 9 Oct national energy commission meeting, premier Li stated 'Deep research and analyze carbon peak stepwise timetables & roadmaps whilst considering recent contradictions in power/coal supply demand'

gov.cn/xinwen/2021-10…