Thread by @KashPrime

We can't just 'live with' Covid - the virus is far too dangerous to allow it to spread uncontrolled even with vaccines.
My presentation to @PopAlberta today:
With the amazing @GosiaGasperoPhD @DFisman @Lorian_H and @LukaszukAB
#ableg #popAB #COVID19AB

We can't live with Covid any more than we can live with measles, polio, smallpox, malaria, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. These are all things that have been controlled with sustained effort over multiple generations.

This is an important paper by @dgurdasani1 @adamhamdy and @fitterhappierAJ and Dr. Marc Desforges which outlines many of the ongoing concerns regarding SARS-CoV2:
mdpi.com/2076-0817/10/1…

There's no evidence that the virus is evolving to a more benign state. It is not being 'defanged' - it has only gotten more infectious with time.

There is ample evidence that the virus persists in many parts of the body, replicating at a low level for months after infection.

Long Covid is still a risk even with breakthrough infection. With vaccines that is less likely, but its not something that we want to test with high community viral load.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

SARS2 has a number of features that lead it to cause massive damage across the body. It has a 'superantigen' - which overstimulates T-cells. It has a furin cleavage site- enhancing transmissibility.

This was covered in a recent episode of TWIV:

There are still too many unvaccinated adults out there. If we let the virus run rampant, we risk their health and everyone else as hospitals get overwhelmed again.

This is the only logical conclusion:

Use common sense, ratchet up interventions when things go bad, relax when things are better.

So far in Ontario we are doing quite well with this approach, though cases are starting to track upwards today. Shops and restaurants are open, life is proceeding normally, and hospitals are not falling apart (no more than usual!).

What to do if cases start tracking up?
Right now, clusters are starting out in children and schools, the largest unvaccinated pool we have.
We need to deploy rapid testing in regions that are spiking up ASAP.
We need to roll 5-11 vaccinations quickly.

A true 'living with Covid' strategy should aim to keep cases low permanently. Have testing available at home; deploy antivirals when they are available; permanently fix ventilation - cleaner air is better for everyone. With case numbers low, we can carry on without fear.

What's the end game? A true sterilizing vaccine that prevents onward transmission. With the promising numbers that we're seeing with 3rd doses, maybe we'll get there sooner than we think.

In the end, policy choices matter. Leaders that can convince their societies to endure short-term hardship for long term gain will prosper. This is the choice before every society on the planet now.