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Using data, statistics, and facts to explain Metro | Not associated with WMATA | by @srepetsk Tips? DM/email stephen+tips@srepetsk.net | Signal: 571-485-5721

Nov 15, 2021, 48 tweets

Hello and welcome to Thread 5 of the ongoing 7000-series train derailment/aftermath. You can catch up on Thread 4 & prior tweets here:

#wmata Red Line trains continue running every 12, Yellow/Green every 20, Orange/Silver/Blue every 30.

At the moment, per MetroHero there are 0 8-car trains operating on #wmata Metrorail. There were a couple last week on the Blue Line for events at Arlington Cemetery and a couple others floating around, but none today (at least not right now).

Yep, that's an axle on a turntable.

#WMATA

#wmata schedule data still says Orange/Silver/Blue run every 30 minutes.

Based on @dcmetrohero data, it appears that #wmata has not actually bumped up Orange/Blue line trains to run every ~24 minutes. Trains are still being dispatched on the 30-minute schedule, but 1 or more tripper trains are being worked into the schedule to provide add'l service.

As noted in Tom's reply, #wmata says current service levels remain thru end of Nov. Add'l trains should come online as more 2Ks/6Ks continue to be put back into service, but won't be "normal" until at least some 7Ks are back in the fleet. My guess is Jan.

On the other hand, #wmata Orange/Silver/Blue lines have been consistently running more often than the scheduled 30-minute frequencies the agency is advertising.

"Ramnaress said it can take six hours to measure 64 axles, which is about 16 cars. The entire 7000-series train fleet has nearly 3,000 axles."

*Very* rough math: it would take 1 crew 11.5 days to inspect every axle assuming no breaks. 3 crews = 4d #WMATA
dcist.com/story/21/11/16…

Very hard to tell how much other work these more frequent axle inspections will disrupt. There's scheduled maintenance that takes X pit space, but also unscheduled work that comes up as needed. Also unknown: what scheduled work can be deprioritized.
#wmata

The roughness of this math means you shouldn't extrapolate and try to draw conclusions from it. Each yard has different storage capacities, numbers of pits/lifts where this work can be done, etc., = uneven distribution.
We'll see what I can dig up. #WMATA

Today is the second day that #wmata is running ~24-minute headways on the Orange/Silver/Blue lines (better than 30min of the past month), yet the agency has yet to publish updated schedule data to match or update public-facing/press material to reflect the change.

#wmata showed some media folks yesterday how they perform their wheel back to back measurement, the one that tells them if the wheels are too far apart on the trains.

The 1.5-day-late announcement that #wmata increased frequencies on the Orange/Silver/Blue lines yesterday is now here:

While the #wmata press release announcing increased Orange/Silver/Blue frequencies is here, it appears that the wmata.com Trip Planner has not actually been updated to reflect the new schedule

#WMATA Orange/Silver/Blue schedule data you see in MetroHero, Google Maps, and other transit apps have been updated to show the new 24-minutes frequencies.

The two #wmata 7000-series test trains are several days ahead of schedule, having run longer hours & gathering more mileage per day than initially estimated.

On this 11th day of testing, non-revenue trains 801 and 802 will be showing up on the Green Line.

These eight trains were moved out to Dulles Rail Yard a few weeks ago as a way to make room in the rest of the #WMATA rail yards when the 7Ks were grounded. Makes shuffling railcars around in the yards a bit easier.

The 2000-series cars *are* getting old - having been delivered to #WMATA between 1983 and 1988 - but at best some cars have been in cold storage for about a year during the pandemic, not a decade.

wtop.com/tracking-metro…

Not a huge surprise for those following the situation, but #wmata says current service levels will remain through December. No ETA on when the 7Ks are back, and the agency blames global logistics delays for keeping more 6Ks from returning to service.

Unclear cause at the moment, but #WMATA Green/Yellow lines appear to be running less frequently than expected today.

Still tracking some delays on the Yellow/Green line this morning. If either Alexandria, Greenbelt, or Branch Ave rail yards were low on available trains this morning, that could be a possible cause of missing trains.
#WMATA

Yep, that'll do it. Explainer why Yellow/Green (and possibly Blue) lines have fewer trains than expected this morning:
#WMATA

After running nearly non-stop for 15 days, it appears that #WMATA has wrapped up with its series of 7000-series testing. The two test trains were each to run on all six rail lines for nearly 5,000mi to provide the agency data it needs for analysis.

ggwash.org/view/83030/met…

"The NTSB examined [derailed] car 7200 and found that both wheels had moved outboard from their seats, increasing the gage 2 inches, which exceeded the design specifications"

#WMATA

The NTSB today published their preliminary report into October's #WMATA 7000-series train derailment. Before you get too excited, the investigation is ongoing and no root cause of the wheel movement which led to the derailment is named.

The #WMATA railcar shortage is real.

#WMATA appears to have submitted its 7000-series Return To Service plan to the WMSC late Friday for approval. Approval and implementation of this plan is required before the cars can reenter service (meaning more trains for riders).

Big news for #WMATA: WMSC has approved its plan for gradually returning 7000-series trains to service.

#WMATA's plan hopes to return up to 336 7000-series railcars to service within three weeks of approval of the plan - so about the 1st week of January.

The version of the #WMATA plan I've seen says wheel back-to-back inspections are to occur every seven days, down from every eight (which was already decreased from every 10).

With WMSC approval of #WMATA plan to return some 7000-series trains to service, frequencies will get better (specific dates TBD), but will *not* immediately go back to what they were. WMATA first plans on Red Line trains running every 8 & others every 15

The first 336 7000-series railcars that #WMATA is bringing back are the "high tonnage" ones with the wheel spec that was changed in 2017 after Metro first noticed an issue with wheels spreading more than expected (ggwash.org/view/82871/the…)

The first 7000-series train back in service since the October derailment has just left Wiehle heading for Largo. #WMATA

First 7000-series is on Silver
Next is now on Blue
#WMATA

She's back.
#WMATA

It's worth reiterating that, while #WMATA is beginning to reintroduce 7000-series trains to the active fleet, train frequencies will not immediately improve. The agency is first targeting 15min on all lines + 8min on Red, but no date for that is set.

It looks like there are about 7 8-car trains out there on #WMATA, which should be all or mostly 7000-series trains

#WMATA now says it's going to perform daily wheel inspections on it's 7000-series railcars. These were every 90 days before the October derailment. They claim this is out of an abundance of caution.

This will certainly freeze any planned service increases that #WMATA was scheduling for later this year/early next.
All lines are currently running every 20, with 12 for Red.

The #WMATA plan returning 7Ks to service calls for inspection teams @ 3 S&I shops, 2 shifts each. Metro folks say inspecting 16 cars takes 6 hours, which (factoring in breaks, train movements, etc.) is likely ~= 1 shift. This limit ~= max 24 7K trainsets.

So what does TTCI know, which led them to recommend daily 7K wheel/axle inspections, that the NTSB and the WMSC (parties to the NTSB's investigation), satisfied with weekly inspections, don't?

#WMATA didn't say.
wmata.com/about/news/Met…

Odd, also, is that #WMATA appears to have made this decision to go with TTCI's recommendation prior to consulting with the NTSB and WMSC.

There appear to be zero 8-car 7000-series trains out on the #WMATA Metrorail system today.

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